Why I sold my shares in MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas company
I wrote about MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas company back in May and it has been in my portfolio since.
This week I decided to sell all my shares.
Not because the company is doing poorly on paper, but because the risks around it have started to feel bigger than the returns. With energy companies, geopolitics often matters more than profits.
And for MOL, that’s especially true.
Even though Hungary has had some temporary exemptions, the EU and US are steadily tightening the screws on Russian oil and gas.
The EU has already banned most Russian crude and refined products and the broader goal is to cut dependence completely.
Recently, Donald Trump has also been pushing Hungary hard to detach from Russian energy.
This shows that the pressure isn't just coming from one political direction. It is a broader, bipartisan push from the West.
MOL might be safe for now, but it’s only a matter of time before that political cushion shrinks.
MOL’s main refinery near Budapest runs best on Russian crude. Historically, most of Hungary’s oil (around 60%) has come through the old Druzhba (“Friendship”) pipeline.
It has just turned out recently that in the first half of 2025 this dependency has even increased to a staggering 92% (!).
Hungary is expected to phase out Russian oil by the end of 2027, though the EU and US are pressuring it to do so by 2026.
While switching suppliers is possible, it’s costly and not as simple as flipping a switch. That reliance on one country and one pipeline makes MOL more vulnerable than I’m comfortable with.
The pipeline itself has already been disrupted multiple times since the war in Ukraine began, from drone strikes to explosions. Each incident shows how fragile this supply line really is. Hungary has an alternative route through Croatia, but it’s limited, expensive and competition for that capacity is high.
If the Friendship pipeline goes down, MOL could be stuck.
Yes, MOL has benefited from cheap Russian oil, which boosted its profits in 2022 and 2023. But that advantage is now shaky given the increasing pressure.
If exemptions end or supply gets disrupted, MOL would face:
higher costs buying non-Russian crude
inefficiencies at its refinery
lower profits compared to competitors that already diversified away
It would mean at least a 25-30% impact on margins, changing the intrinsic value down to around HUF 2.900 ($8.70)
That’s not a bet I want to keep holding.
For me, the geopolitical risks outweigh the financial upside.
That’s why I sold.
All in all, considering the dividends and the FX rate changes (USDHUF), in USD terms I realized 9.32% return, which is not bad. So, I am moving on.
The Assymetric Edge portfolio gained 50+% in less than 5 months, more than double what many investors would hope to see in a strong year.
Every move is published, every trade disclosed. I’ve got skin in the game and everything is out in the open.