Asymmetric Energy Portfolio: up 1.67% in July 2025! 💰📈
Asymmetric Energy Portfolio is having a solid performance this month despite high volatility. 🚀
We have seen a solid 1.67% increase in value in July and 9.01% since the launch of the portfolio at the end of April. 📈
Portfolio page is updated with the details. 🗂️
I have my skin in the game, this portfolio is not a model portfolio. Paid subscribers are able to see proof of transactions.
Below is a detailed update about each equity in the portfolio. 📝
🛢️ Teekay Tankers (TNK): the oil shipping empire
July was a rollercoaster for Teekay Tankers.
The stock closed July at $42.35, down -5.38% and then it rallied 6.6% in the first few days of August.
While the stock is up 10+% year-to-date, it's still down 19% over the past year—creating the perfect "coiled spring" setup.
I think TNK is quietly positioning for what could be the biggest tanker supercycle in decades.
💣 The Q2 earnings miss
The headlines: revenue down 22% to $232.9 million, earnings miss expectations
What is mostly missed:
adjusted EPS of $1.41 still beat consensus (barely, but a beat is a beat)
$0.25 dividend declared despite the "disappointing" quarter
$712 million cash pile with zero debt (try finding that combination anywhere else)
Management is so confident in their future cash flows that they're paying shareholders while the market panics about a cyclical downturn.
That is supreme confidence.
🚢 The fleet renewal strategy
TNK sold 4 older Suezmaxes and one LR2 for $158.5 million
The company systematically upgrading its competitive position while competitors cling to aging assets
It is a good move:
out with the old: sold aging, less efficient vessels at decent prices
in with the new: acquired modern Suezmax plus 50% of VLCC Hong Kong Spirit
the result: Higher efficiency, lower operating costs, better day rates
In shipping, newer vessels command premium rates and have lower operating costs.
TNK isn't just maintaining their fleet, they are building a competitive moat one ship at a time.
⚡ The OPEC+ wildcard that could change everything
OPEC+ is unwinding supply cuts while new production comes online in Brazil and Guyana.
It means: more oil moving longer distances = massive demand for tanker capacity
TNK is positioned with modern, efficient vessels just as demand could explode
TNK's breakeven is around $13,000/day. Current spot rates are well above that, and if the OPEC+ thesis plays out, rates could skyrocket to levels that make current earnings look like a rounding error.
🎯 Cash is king
What separates TNK from others: that $712 million cash pile with (close to) zero debt.
It's a strategic weapon.
The competitive advantage:
opportunistic acquisitions when distressed vessels hit the market
weather downturns without diluting shareholders
return capital through dividends and buybacks
invest in technology and efficiency improvements
While competitors are scrambling for financing and diluting shareholders, TNK is playing offense with a fortress balance sheet.
📊 The valuation disconnect
Analyst fair value: Around $53 (18% upside from current levels)
The reality: if tanker rates recover to historical norms, that $53 target could look very conservative
The risk-reward setup:
downside: limited by strong balance sheet and dividend support
upside: massive if tanker supercycle materializes
catalyst: OPEC+ supply increases + new oil production = higher shipping demand
🌊 The cyclical opportunity that most investors miss
Where we are now:
rates softening (classic late-cycle behavior)
sentiment negative (perfect contrarian setup)
strong fundamentals building for next upcycle
TNK positioned with modern fleet and clean balance sheet
🎪 The investment thesis is getting stronger
What has not changed:
operational leverage to tanker rates (massive upside when rates recover)
clean balance sheet (zero debt, $712M cash)
smart capital allocation (fleet renewal, dividends, opportunistic investments)
What is getting better:
fleet quality improving with each transaction
market positioning as competitors struggle with financing
potential catalysts building with OPEC+ and new oil production
💡 The bottom line
TNK is systematically positioning to dominate the next upcycle.
When the tanker supercycle arrives (and it will), we will be very well positioned as we ignore the noise.
TNK is positioning for the next decade.
The market just hasn't figured it out yet.
Permian Resources (PR):
PR closed July at $14.16, up 3.96% for the month, a decent performance.
The company will report 2025 Q2 on 7 August, however there are some major news from July.
🎯 The good news
July 23rd: Susquehanna just dropped a price target bomb.
They raised PR's target from $19 to $20 per share.
That's 30% upside from current levels.
Why this matters more than you think:
Susquehanna is a major Wall Street firm
$20 target suggests they see fundamental value others are missing
Delaware Basin positioning cited as key competitive advantage
Strong fundamentals getting recognition from institutional money
31 July: PR has won investment-grade status on its long-term debt from Fitch Ratings. Such a gold stamp is as rare as a white raven for E&Ps as their assets are in a state of perpetual diminishment.
This rating is worth more than gold.
The immediate financial impact:
lower borrowing costs (potentially saving millions annually)
access to institutional bond buyers who can only buy investment-grade debt
expanded capital markets access for future growth financing
balance sheet flexibility that competitors can only dream of
The strategic advantage:
acquisition currency (can use cheaper debt to buy distressed assets)
competitive moat (lower cost of capital = higher returns on projects)
financial stability during commodity downturns
institutional credibility that attracts serious money
💰 The financial fortress
Here's what the market is completely ignoring about PR's balance sheet:
The Powerhouse Metrics:
ROE over 14% (excellent capital efficiency)
$700+ million cash pile (financial flexibility in volatile times), up 46.5% (!) since 2024 Q4
4.4% dividend yield (well-covered and sustainable)
Manageable debt levels (no financial stress)
PR is a cash-generating machine trading at distressed valuations while paying shareholders handsomely.
🏜️ The Delaware Basin advantage
Why PR's geography is their secret weapon:
Heart of the Permian Basin = lowest-cost, highest-quality oil region in the US
Breakeven costs among the lowest in North America
Infrastructure advantages with established pipeline networks
Drilling efficiency that competitors can't match
The Competitive Moat: When oil prices get volatile (and they likely will), companies with the lowest production costs survive and thrive. PR is positioned to dominate when weaker players get shaken out.
⛽ MOL Group: the calm before the earnings storm
This Hungarian energy powerhouse just delivered another month of steady performance (price up 3.25%) that proves sometimes the best investments are the ones nobody's talking about.
MOL shares have climbed 10% YTD to around 3,050 HUF, with a $6.7 billion market cap that still feels reasonable for what you're getting.
This is steady, sustainable appreciation backed by actual business fundamentals. In a choppy energy market where most players are just trying to survive, MOL is quietly thriving.
July was a quiet month without any major news. The company is reporting 2025 Q2 on 8 August.
🚀 The "2030+" strategy that's more than just buzzwords
MOL is executing a comprehensive transformation:
downstream focus: more refining and chemicals (higher margins, less commodity exposure)
retail expansion: building a consumer-facing business that's harder to disrupt
strategic exploration: new Azerbaijan deal adding to future reserves
The Azerbaijan exploration deal might not move the stock today, but it's building tomorrow's production base. While competitors are cutting exploration budgets, MOL is quietly securing future cash flows.
⚡ The currency and political resilience test
MOL operates in a world of HUF/USD/EUR currency swings and regional political complexity. Yet somehow, they keep delivering steady results.
Management has figured out how to navigate complexity and deliver consistent performance regardless of external noise. In an industry where companies blame everything on "market conditions," MOL just executes.
📉 The analyst pessimism
Analysts are calling for a 15% earnings decline.
The fact that MOL's stock held steady around 3,050 HUF throughout July despite these gloomy forecasts suggests either the market has completely given up on the company (classic value trap territory) or smart money recognizes that analyst expectations have become so depressed that even a modest earnings beat could trigger a significant re-rating.
In energy investing, the biggest moves often come when companies clear the lowest bars, and right now, MOL's bar is sitting on the ground.
It means the upside surprise potential is massive if management can deliver anything close to flat earnings instead of the expected decline.
💡 The bottom line
MOL's July wasn't about what happened, it was about what was about to happen. The combination of low expectations, strategic developments and stable trading created the perfect conditions for either a major breakout or a value trap revelation.
August 8th would tell the whole story.
⛏️ New Hope Corporation (NHC): the coal cash cow that's defying the doomsayers
While ESG investors were busy virtue-signaling about clean energy, New Hope Corporation quietly delivered an 12.97% July rally and an 10% dividend yield.
This "dirty" investment might be the cleanest profit opportunity on the Australian market.
The momentum is building.
🔥 The coal demand reality that ESG investors ignore
The inconvenient truth: While everyone talks about renewable energy, Asian demand for thermal coal remains rock-solid and supply constraints are keeping prices elevated.
The fundamental drivers:
Energy security concerns in Europe and Asia
Supply chain disruptions limiting coal availability
Industrial demand that can't be easily replaced
Base-load power requirements that renewables can't fully meet
The NHC advantage: positioned in Australia with high-quality thermal coal and established Asian customer relationships.
Exactly what the market needs.
📊 The valuation disconnect
The analyst consensus: 20-40% undervalued depending on coal price assumptions
The balance sheet: strong cash flows, manageable debt, sustainable operations
The earnings: $0.40 EPS (up from $0.30 last year) with solid cost control
The market inefficiency: ESG mandates are forcing institutional selling regardless of fundamentals, creating massive opportunities for value investors willing to think independently.
💡 The bottom line
New Hope Corporation is offering you immediate income and value recognition while the market sorts out its ESG virtue-signaling.
8.8% fully-franked yield that's sustainable.
Unloved sector with fundamental value.
NHC isn't trying to save the world. It is just trying to make you money.
In today's market, it is exactly what we need.