Asymmetric Edge portfolio update: up 8.64% in February, +21.25% YTD 2026
Our portfolio continued to perform strongly in February after a spectacular start in January.
As a result, the Asymmetric Edge portfolio gained 8.64% in February, clearly outperforming the S&P 500, which “gained” -0.87%%
We look forward to repeating the strong results of 2025, although we expect this year to be bumpy.
The YTD (at end of February) return of the portfolio is 21.25%, while S&P500 returned 0.49% in the same period.
The largest sector exposures remain Basic Materials and Energy.
This is how the performance of individual holdings looks like (with dividend reinvestment and currency fluctuations included):
Paid subscribers: scroll down for the summary with full information
Transactions
Purchased Basic material ETF CALL option
Purchased Basic Material Trust
GLD 0.00%↑ PUT option expired worthless, we kept the premium ($327 per contract).
Update on the positions - 2026 February
Kinross Gold (KGC) - February update
February was another absolute heater for KGC.
30 Jan: $31.56
27 Feb: $36.99
February move: +$5.43, or +17.2%
That is a massive back-to-back gain. After a 12% jump in January, seeing another 17% in February tells me the market is finally waking up to the cash flow story here.
What happened in February
A few big things hit the tape this month, and in my opinion, they changed the conversation around Kinross:
1) Q4 and FY 2025 results: the cash machine is humming
Kinross dropped their latest numbers, and they were exactly what the bulls wanted to see. They generated massive free cash flow and, more importantly, they actually hit their production targets. In mining, hitting your guidance is half the battle. Not only did they produce the gold, but they did it while controlling costs.
2) Debt reduction and the “net cash” milestone
Management has been talking about reaching a net cash position for a while, and they are basically there. When a mining company clears its debt and starts sitting on a pile of cash, the risk profile changes completely. Investors stop worrying about bankruptcy or dilutive raises and start dreaming about bigger buybacks or dividends.
3) Gold price tailwinds
Gold had a volatile but generally supportive month. With global trade tensions and some shaky economic data coming out of the U.S., the “safe haven” trade stayed active. When gold moves, KGC moves more. That is the operational leverage we talk about.
So, my take is that February was the month where “potential” turned into “proven results.”
Thesis check: is it still good value?
My thesis on KGC has always been about operational resilience and cash generation.
The thesis is still unchanged, but the “margin of safety” is getting thinner. When you buy a stock at $14.52 (like I did), you have a lot of room for error. At nearly $37, the market is pricing in a lot of success.
I think the story is still great, but the expectations are much higher now. If they miss a production target in Q1 or if a mill has a hiccup, the pullback could be sharp. Not because the company is bad, but because the “hot money” that chased the February rally will be the first to leave.
My take
Kinross has a very healthy business right now. However, we have to be careful not to get blinded by the green candles.
Here is my take on the risks today:
Overbought sentiment: everyone loves gold miners right now. That usually means a cooling-off period is coming.
Geopolitical wildcards: Kinross has assets in places like Mauritania (Tasiast). While it’s performing great, any local instability is a constant background risk.
Capex spending: they are planning to spend over $1 billion on growth. I like growth, but I’ll be watching closely to make sure that money isn’t being wasted on “empire building.”
The combination of strong earnings, debt reduction and a supportive gold price has created a perfect storm for the stock. The thesis remains intact, but I’m shifting my stance to “cautiously optimistic” rather than “back the truck up.”
It has been a wild ride so far in 2026. If you’re sitting on big gains, it might be a good time to check your stop-losses or even trim a tiny bit to lock in some profit. But for now, the Kinross engine is running smooth.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) - February update
February was another solid month for GLD, continuing the momentum from January but with a bit more calm and steadiness.
GLD (30 Jan): $444.95
GLD (27 Feb): $483.75
February return: about +8.7%
A strong gain for a month where markets were a bit more mixed.
What happened in February
February’s story was less about sudden shocks and more about steady support for gold as a safe haven, with a few key themes:
Continued geopolitical and economic uncertainty: the same worries that fueled January’s rally didn’t go away. Tensions in global trade, ongoing concerns about inflation and cautious central bank moves kept investors interested in gold.
Gold’s role as a hedge against inflation and currency risk: inflation remained sticky in many economies and the dollar stayed under pressure at times. Gold’s appeal as a store of value in this environment stayed intact. Investors still see it as a way to protect against currency debasement and rising debt levels globally.
Less volatility, more steady accumulation: unlike January’s rollercoaster, February saw fewer wild swings. Gold and GLD moved up steadily, reflecting a more balanced market mood where gold was a steady anchor rather than a frantic bet.
What happened with the gold price
Gold prices rose steadily through February, hovering mostly in the $5,000+ per ounce range, with some days pushing closer to $5,200. This steady climb matches GLD’s 8.7% gain. The market seemed to digest January’s big moves and settle into a more sustainable pace.
Is the thesis unchanged?
Yes, the thesis remains solid in my view.
Gold continues to serve its purpose as a portfolio diversifier and a hedge against uncertainty. The drivers from January (policy uncertainty, inflation concerns, geopolitical risks) are still very much in play. The difference is that February showed a more measured, less volatile market environment.
My take
GLD remains a good hedge and portfolio diversifier, not a classic value stock. The risk of a sharp pullback is always there, but the steady gains in February suggest investors are still confident in gold’s role.
If you’re holding GLD as insurance or a long-term store of value, February’s performance reinforces that it’s doing its job. If you’re chasing quick gains, remember gold’s moves can be lumpy and sometimes sudden.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - February update
February was another solid month for GLD, continuing the momentum from January but with a bit more calm and steadiness.
GDX (30 Jan): $94.20
GDX (27 Feb): $115.84
February return: about +22.9%
GDX has now climbed about 35% since the start of the year. We aren't just seeing a "bounce" anymore. This is a powerful trend that is starting to catch the attention of the broader market.
What happened in February
In my opinion, February was the month where the “operational leverage” of gold miners finally hit the gas pedal.
Here is my take on why the move was so violent:
Gold prices stayed firm: gold didn’t just sit there; it pushed higher, providing the perfect tailwind.
Earnings season surprises: as the big miners reported their Q4 and full-year results, the market realized that many of these companies are actually managing their costs better than expected. When the price of gold goes up and your “All-In Sustaining Costs” (AISC) stay flat, your profit margin doesn’t just grow, it explodes.
Short covering: a lot of traders were betting against miners after the late-January dip. When GDX didn’t break down, those shorts had to buy back their positions, adding fuel to the rally.
The big boys are back: the heavyweights in the ETF (names like Newmont (NEM) and Agnico Eagle (AEM)) showed some real muscle this month.
Dividends and buybacks: we saw a few more companies signal that they are committed to returning cash to shareholders. In the mining world, that’s a huge sign of maturity.
M&A Rumors: there’s been some chatter about further consolidation in the sector. When the big miners have fat wallets, they start looking to buy the smaller, high-quality juniors to replenish their reserves. That speculative heat always helps the GDX.
Update on the thesis
GDX is still good value, but the “easy” entry points are behind us.
Gold mining isn’t dying, it’s actually becoming more profitable as the “de-dollarization” and “inflation hedge” themes keep gold prices structurally high.
I think we are moving from the “skepticism” phase to the “acceptance” phase. Not only are retail investors jumping in, but institutional money is starting to rotate back into the sector because they can’t ignore these margins anymore.
In my opinion, the biggest risk right now isn’t the gold price, it’s complacency. When everyone starts talking about how “gold miners are the best trade of 2026,” that’s usually when we see a sharp 5-10% correction to shake out the “weak hands.”
My take
The thesis remains firmly intact. The miners are finally doing what they are supposed to do: amplifying the gains of the underlying metal.
So, if you’re already in, February was a victory lap. If you’re looking to get in now, just remember that volatility is the price of admission in this sector. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some consolidation in March, but as long as the macro backdrop stays messy, gold (and its miners) should remain the “safe haven” of choice.
Stay disciplined. Stay ahead.
iShares Silver Trust (SLV) - February update
Another Strong Month, Physical Squeeze Intensifies
SLV price at end of January: $75.44
SLV price at end of February: $84.99
That’s about a +12.6% gain in February, continuing the strong momentum from January despite some wild swings mid-month.
What happened in February?
February was the month where “macro reality” met “physical scarcity.” After the wild $100+ breakout in January, the market spent most of February trying to figure out where the new “normal” sits. Here’s my take on the key drivers:
The “Debasement trade” is back: investors rotated heavily into precious metals as a hedge against intensifying trade and geopolitical risks. The U.S. administration’s move to invoke Section 122 for a 10% global tariff sparked fears of a global trade war. When people fear the dollar’s purchasing power is at risk, they buy silver.
The “Warsh crash” hangover: early in the month, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair sent shockwaves through the market. His reputation as a hawk initially caused a massive 27% crash in silver as the dollar surged. However, the market spent the rest of February realizing that even a hawkish Fed can’t print more physical silver.
Industrial demand vs. “thrifting”: we’re seeing a fascinating tug-of-war. Solar manufacturers are starting to panic about high costs and are looking for silver-free alternatives. But as J.P. Morgan analysts pointed out, this “thrifting” takes years to play out. In the short term, the 60% of silver demand that comes from industry is still competing for a very limited supply.
Geopolitical jitters: with the U.S. State Department authorizing departures from the embassy in Israel, the “flight to safety” was in full swing by late February. Silver benefited from investors liquidating “bubbly” AI tech stocks and moving into hard assets.
COMEX physical claims & inventory situation
COMEX registered silver inventory fell sharply, with reports showing a continued bleeding of physical silver from warehouses. By late January, registered inventory was around 113 million ounces and continued to decline in February.
The paper-to-physical silver ratio remains extremely stretched, with futures contracts representing many multiples of the physical metal available for delivery. This mismatch fuels delivery risk and market tension.
Lease rates for silver surged to 7-8%, signaling acute physical supply stress and high borrowing costs for silver metal.
The backwardation in silver futures (near-term contracts more expensive than deferred ones) persisted, indicating immediate physical scarcity.
China’s export controls have fragmented the market, limiting silver flows to Western hubs and pushing premiums in Asian markets to $5-8/oz over Western prices.
Institutional players like Sprott doubled down on physical silver buying, raising billions to acquire allocated bullion, representing a significant portion of COMEX inventory.
Is the silver squeeze still expected?
Absolutely yes. The physical silver squeeze narrative is not only intact but accelerating:
The structural deficit in silver supply has now extended into its sixth consecutive year, with cumulative shortfalls exceeding 800 million ounces since 2021.
The paper silver system is under stress, with more investors demanding physical delivery and fewer bars available.
China’s export restrictions and strategic stockpiling by emerging-market central banks are tightening global supply chains.
Industrial demand continues to grow rapidly, especially with new technologies like solid-state batteries potentially doubling silver demand in the next decade.
The market is evolving from a paper-dominated pricing system to one where physical scarcity and regional premiums play a bigger role.
In short, the silver squeeze is very much alive and expected to continue driving volatility and price pressure in 2026.
Is the thesis unchanged?
The core thesis remains strong and unchanged:
SLV continues to represent physical silver exposure, which is in tight supply and high demand.
The macro backdrop of Fed easing expectations, monetary uncertainty, and industrial growth remains supportive.
The physical market dynamics, including COMEX inventory depletion and China’s export controls, reinforce the scarcity story.
The recent volatility and price swings reflect a market in transition, moving from paper dominance to physical reality.
However, the risk profile is elevated due to extreme price swings and speculative momentum. Investors should expect continued volatility and consider position sizing carefully.
My Take
February was a wild month that tested silver’s reputation as a “devil’s metal.” The parabolic rise and historic crash highlight the tension between structural fundamentals and speculative excess. For (P)SLV holders, the long-term story of physical scarcity and industrial demand remains intact, but the ride will be bumpy.
If you’re new to silver, I’d recommend a cautious, patient approach, scaling in on dips rather than chasing spikes. For existing holders, managing risk and staying focused on the multi-year thesis is key.
Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) - February update
This is our new buy in February.
PSLV price on 9 February (entry date): $25.90
PSLV price at end of February: $30.89
That is a nice 19.27% gain in just 3 weeks.
Whatever I wrote about SLV above applies to PSLV too, but the “how” and “why” are different. The distinction between “paper silver” and “shiny bars in a vault” really matters.
The “Trust” factor: PSLV vs. SLV
While SLV is an ETF that tracks the price, PSLV is a closed-end trust that actually holds fully allocated physical silver bullion.
In a month like February, where we saw a “credit crisis” in paper silver and massive COMEX delivery demands, PSLV often becomes the preferred vehicle for the “hard money” crowd.
Physical squeeze: when I mentioned the COMEX inventory drain, that’s actually a tailwind for PSLV. As physical silver becomes harder to source, the fact that PSLV already has its bars tucked away in the Royal Canadian Mint becomes a huge competitive advantage.
Premium/discount to NAV: unlike SLV, which stays close to the silver price, PSLV can trade at a premium or discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV). In a “silver squeeze” scenario, investors often bid up PSLV to a premium because they want the security of allocated metal. If you see PSLV trading at a 2-3% premium, it’s a sign that the “squeeze” is getting serious.
Why PSLV might be the “value” play
In my opinion, if you believe the “value trap” risk in silver comes from the manipulation of paper contracts, PSLV is your escape hatch.
No “Paper” games: PSLV doesn’t use derivatives or “short” silver to manage its position. It’s a straightforward “buy bars, put them in a vault” model. For the intermediate investor who is worried about a systemic “de-risking” event, PSLV offers a layer of protection that SLV simply doesn’t.
Tax advantages: For some investors (especially in the U.S.), PSLV can be treated as a “Qualified Electing Fund” (QEF), which can have better tax implications than SLV, which is often taxed at the higher “collectibles” rate. Not only are you getting the metal, but you’re keeping more of the gains.
The “squeeze” mechanics
Well, here’s the kicker: PSLV actually contributes to the silver squeeze.
When investors pile into PSLV, the trust goes out into the open market and buys physical 1,000-ounce bars to add to the vault. This takes supply off the market permanently. In February, as industrial demand stayed sticky and central banks kept sniffing around, PSLV’s buying added even more pressure to the already thin physical supply.
My take
In fact, I think the thesis for PSLV is even stronger than SLV right now. If the global trade war escalates and we see a real “run” on physical metal, the “paper” silver in ETFs might face liquidity issues or tracking errors.
PSLV, with its bars already in the vault, is the “purest” way to play the silver bull market without actually buying the physical metal.
If you’re worried about the “debasement trade” and want to avoid the “paper” volatility of the COMEX, PSLV is the professional’s choice. It’s not just a bet on the price, it’s a bet on the physical reality of a metal that is running out.
Aberdeen Standard Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT) - February update
PPLT had a strong month.
Jan 30: $195.04
Feb 27: $214.73
Move: +$19.69, which is about +10.1% for the month
That’s a solid jump, showing renewed interest and momentum in platinum.
What happened in February
February’s move was driven by a few key factors:
Supply concerns: there were fresh worries about platinum supply disruptions, especially from major mining regions. When supply tightens or looks uncertain, prices tend to react sharply.
Industrial demand pickup: signs of stronger industrial activity, especially in the automotive sector where platinum is used in catalytic converters, helped boost demand expectations.
Inflation and safe-haven appeal: with inflation concerns lingering, some investors looked to platinum as a less crowded precious metal alternative to gold, adding to the buying pressure.
No single event dominated, but the combination of supply worries and improving demand outlook gave platinum a nice boost.
Thesis check
The thesis remains solid and maybe even stronger after this move.
The supply constraints are real and could tighten further.
The industrial demand story is gaining traction again, which supports longer-term price strength.
Platinum’s relative undervaluation vs gold still looks attractive, especially as investors seek diversification in precious metals.
That said, the risk of volatility remains. The price can swing on macro shifts or changes in industrial demand forecasts.
But overall, the fundamentals backing PPLT look intact and supportive.
My take
The investment thesis is unchanged and looks even more compelling now. It’s not a guaranteed win, but the setup feels right for continued upside with some bumps along the way.
Teekay Tankers (TNK) — February update
Performance in January
Price on 31 Jan: $64.52
Price on 27 Feb: $78.27
Monthly return: about +21.4%
This continued the strong momentum from January, pushing TNK to new 52-week highs. The stock is clearly in favor with investors right now.
What moved the stock in February?
Earnings report and guidance
February saw TNK release its latest earnings report, which came in strong and mostly in line with the optimistic expectations from January. The company confirmed solid earnings growth and maintained its positive outlook for the tanker market.
My take:
The market tends to reward companies that deliver on or beat expectations in cyclical sectors.
TNK’s ability to sustain high earnings and cash flow in a volatile shipping environment is impressive.
The confirmation of strong fundamentals gave investors confidence to push the price higher.
Continued tight tanker market conditions
The tanker market fundamentals stayed supportive in February:
Limited new tanker deliveries,
Ongoing geopolitical factors affecting oil trade routes,
Stable to rising day rates for mid-sized tankers.
This backdrop keeps TNK’s earnings power intact and even hints at potential upside if rates hold or improve.
Positive sentiment and valuation re-rating
With the stock now trading near $78, the market is clearly pricing in continued strength. The valuation multiple has expanded somewhat, reflecting growing investor confidence.
In my opinion, this is a classic case of a cyclical stock moving from undervalued to fairly valued territory as earnings improve and risks appear more manageable.
Thesis check
After a +21% month following a +20% January, it’s natural to ask if the thesis still holds or if the stock is getting ahead of itself.
What’s still working?
Strong earnings and cash flow: TNK continues to generate robust profits with good margins.
Balance sheet strength: the company remains debt-free with cash reserves, giving it flexibility.
Tanker market fundamentals: supply constraints and steady demand support day rates.
What’s changed or needs watching?
Valuation: At $78, TNK is no longer a deep value play. The stock is closer to fair value or even slightly premium compared to some models.
Cyclical risks: the tanker market is sensitive to global oil demand and geopolitical shifts. Any slowdown or fleet oversupply could pressure rates.
Capital allocation: watch how TNK manages fleet renewal and capital returns. Overpaying for new ships or aggressive expansion could hurt returns.
My take
The core thesis remains intact. TNK is still a well-run tanker company benefiting from a tight market and strong earnings.
However, after two big months of gains, the stock is now priced for continued success. That means less room for error.
For existing holders, this is a good moment to review position size and consider taking some profits if you want to reduce risk.
For new investors, I’d be cautious about chasing the stock here. It’s better to wait for a pullback or clearer signs of sustained earnings growth.
Permian Resources (PR) — February update
Price on 30 January: $16.13
Price on 27 February: $18.29
Move in February: +13.4%
PR kept the momentum going in February with another solid double-digit gain. That’s impressive for a mid-cap E&P, especially after a strong January.
What happened in February?
Here’s what I think drove the stock higher this month:
Commodity tailwinds continued
Oil prices stayed firm or even nudged higher in February, which naturally lifts Permian-focused producers like PR.
The market is rewarding companies with strong Permian assets and visible growth.
Gas prices also stabilized, helping the overall energy complex sentiment.
Operational updates and execution confidence
PR likely shared positive operational updates or reiterated guidance that reassured investors.
Continued efficiency gains, steady production growth, or cost control would all support the rally.
Even if no major news, the market tends to reward consistent execution in this space.
Sector rotation and investor appetite
Energy stocks have been in favor as investors look for yield and inflation hedges.
PR benefits from this rotation as a well-positioned Permian operator with growth and cash flow potential.
Institutional interest probably increased, pushing the stock higher.
Valuation catching up
After January’s move, some investors might have seen PR as undervalued relative to peers, prompting more buying.
The stock is moving closer to fair value, but still offers upside if execution continues.
Is the thesis unchanged?
Yes, the core investment thesis remains solid and unchanged. Here’s a quick refresher and update:
Thesis recap
High-quality Permian assets with scale and operational leverage.
Growth through efficient drilling and consolidation of acreage.
Free cash flow generation leading to debt reduction and shareholder returns.
Valuation supported by cash flow and asset quality, not just hype.
What February’s move means for the thesis
The stock’s rise reflects growing confidence that PR can deliver on its operational and financial targets.
The thesis is playing out as expected: execution + commodity tailwinds = rerating.
At $18.29, the stock is less of a deep value play and more of a quality growth-at-a-reasonable-price name.
The risk/reward profile has shifted, but the underlying story is intact.
The stock is moving from undervalued to fairly valued territory, which is a natural progression.
Investors should watch for signs of operational slip-ups or capital allocation missteps, but none are evident now.
If oil prices stay supportive and PR keeps delivering, the stock can still offer attractive returns.
My take
The company is benefiting from a supportive commodity environment, solid execution and growing investor interest. The investment thesis remains unchanged: PR is a scaled, efficient Permian operator with free cash flow potential and a path to shareholder returns.
If you’re already invested, this is the kind of progress you want to see. If you’re considering entry now, be mindful that some of the easy upside has been realized, but the story still looks intact for the medium term.
New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC) — February update
30 Jan price: A$4.51
27 Feb price: A$4.69
Move: +4.0% for the month
February saw a more modest but steady gain after January’s strong run. NHC continues to outperform many broader market segments, especially given the ongoing uncertainty around coal and energy sectors.
My take: The market is still warming up to NHC’s reliable cash flow and dividends, but the pace of re-rating has slowed as investors digest the risks and wait for fresh catalysts.
What happened in February
Market and sector context
The energy sector, including coal producers like NHC, remained in focus as global energy demand forecasts stayed relatively stable. There were no major shocks to coal prices or policy in February, but the sector benefited from:
Continued Asian demand for thermal coal holding up better than some bearish forecasts.
OPEC+ decisions keeping oil supply tight, indirectly supporting energy equities sentiment.
Investors still hunting for yield in a low-interest environment, making NHC’s 7–8% fully franked yield attractive.
Company-specific news
February was quiet on the news front for New Hope. No major announcements or operational updates were released. The company remains on track with its production ramp-up at New Acland Stage 3 and steady output at Bengalla.
Dividend expectations remain intact, with the market anticipating the next interim dividend around April, consistent with past patterns.
Analyst and broker sentiment
Broker notes and media coverage in February continued to highlight NHC as a solid dividend payer with a low valuation relative to earnings. Some analysts reiterated buy or hold ratings, emphasizing the company’s strong cash flow and balance sheet.
However, there is cautiousness around the longer-term coal outlook, which keeps the valuation multiples compressed.
Is the thesis unchanged?
Yes, the core investment thesis remains intact:
NHC is a cash-generating coal producer with multi-decade mine lives and a strong balance sheet.
The company offers a high, fully franked dividend yield supported by stable production and decent coal prices.
The valuation remains attractive on forward earnings, with a P/E around 6x and yield near 7–8%.
The main risks are structural ESG pressures and potential commodity price volatility, which are priced in but still real.
February’s price action and news flow did not materially change this picture. The market is still valuing NHC as a yield-first, moderate-growth energy play with a political and environmental discount baked in.
My take
NHC’s February performance shows the stock is holding its gains from January and continuing to attract income-focused investors.
If you like steady dividends and can stomach the coal sector’s ESG and regulatory risks, NHC remains a compelling value at these levels.
If you’re already invested, February is a good month to hold and collect dividends. If you’re considering entry, the stock is no longer a screaming bargain after January’s jump, but it still offers a solid risk-reward profile for income investors.
Genmab (GMAB) — February update
30 Jan: $32.63
27 Feb: $29.44
Return: approximately -9.8%
Losing nearly 10% of your value in a month is never fun. While the broader biotech sector had its ups and downs, Genmab definitely underperformed.
This kind of move usually means the market is processing some specific “digestion” issues regarding the company’s future growth or spending.
What happened in February
The big event in February was Genmab dropping its full-year 2025 guidance and 2024 results.
The numbers themselves weren’t terrible, but the outlook caught people off guard.
The revenue story:
Genmab is still a royalty powerhouse. Their partner-led drugs, especially Darzalex, continue to churn out cash. However, the market is starting to look past the “guaranteed” royalties and focusing on what Genmab is doing with that money.
The impact of R&D costs:
Management signaled that they are going to keep their foot on the gas regarding research and development. They are spending heavily to transition from a “royalty collector” to a company that owns and commercializes its own drugs.
In my opinion, this is where the friction lies. Wall Street loves cash flow, but it hates uncertainty.
When a company says, “We are going to spend billions now to maybe make more billions in five years,” short-term traders often head for the exit.
That is exactly what we saw in February. The stock price dropped because investors are worried that rising operating expenses will eat into near-term profits.
Thesis update
Here’s why I think thesis still holds:
The royalty floor: the income from Darzalex and other partnered products provides a massive safety net that most biotechs would kill for. This isn’t a company that’s going to run out of money tomorrow.
Pipeline potential: they are not spending money for fun. They have several late-stage assets that could be massive if they hit.
Valuation: At sub-$30, the stock is starting to look historically cheap relative to its earnings power.
However, not only is the competition in oncology getting tougher, but Genmab is also taking on more “execution risk” by trying to sell drugs themselves.
Well, if you bought in for a quick flip, February was a disaster. But if you are here for the long-term antibody platform story, the fundamentals haven’t actually changed.
The company is just in a “heavy investment” phase.
My take
Genmab is currently in a tug-of-war between its highly profitable past and its expensive future.
The 10% drop in February reflects the market’s annoyance with high spending, but it doesn’t mean the science is bad.
In my opinion, the thesis remains intact.
Genmab is a world-class innovator with a proven track record of creating blockbuster drugs. Yes, the spending is high, and yes, the stock is under pressure, but the core engine—the antibody technology—is still there.
I’ll be watching the next few clinical data readouts closely. If those are positive, this February dip will look like a great buying opportunity. If the data stalls while spending stays high, then we might have to start talking about a value trap. For now, I’m staying the course. ✨
Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) — February update
30 Jan: $71.71
27 Feb: $69.53
It is about a -3% dip.
Not a big drop, but a modest correction after January’s strong run.
What happened in February
February was quieter compared to January’s big news. There were no major new announcements or guidance updates. The stock seemed to digest the strong January gains and the raised expectations.
A few things likely influenced the modest pullback:
Some investors probably took profits after the January rally.
The market overall was a bit choppy in February, with tech and biotech stocks seeing some volatility.
No fresh catalysts to push the stock higher, so it settled back a bit.
No negative news or fundamental changes, just a normal breather after a strong run.
Thesis check
The core investment thesis remains intact.
Halozyme’s ENHANZE platform continues to show strong royalty growth and the expanded drug delivery portfolio with acquisitions like Surf Bio still adds optionality.
The company’s raised guidance from January still stands, and there’s no sign of slowing momentum.
So, in my opinion, the thesis is unchanged, Halozyme remains a growth story with durable royalties and expanding technology.
My take
The slight pullback doesn’t change my view that HALO is a good investment.
The business fundamentals are strong, and the royalty growth is real. The stock is just taking a pause after a solid run.
In my opinion, this is a healthy correction, not a warning sign.
If anything, it’s a chance for investors to reassess and consider adding on dips.
Uber (UBER) — February update
Uber’s stock took a noticeable dip in January.
30 Jan: $80.05
27 Feb: $75.42
That is about a 5.7% drop.
What happened in February?
February’s story was mostly about market jitters and some profit-taking after the stock had a decent run earlier in the year. There weren’t any blockbuster news events, but a few things stood out:
Autonomy concerns lingered. The robotaxi and self-driving vehicle debate didn’t go away. Investors remain cautious about how quickly autonomous fleets will scale and how Uber will fare in that future. This uncertainty keeps a lid on the stock’s upside.
Broader market pressure. Tech and growth stocks faced some headwinds in February, and Uber, being a tech-driven platform, wasn’t immune. The general risk-off mood weighed on shares.
No major earnings or catalyst. February was a quiet month for Uber in terms of news flow. Without fresh positive catalysts, the stock drifted lower as some investors took profits.
Is the thesis unchanged?
I think the core investment thesis for Uber is still solid but with caveats.
Uber remains a dominant player in ride-hailing and delivery, with strong network effects and improving profitability.
The company’s push into autonomous vehicle partnerships and new revenue streams still offers optionality for long-term growth.
However, the valuation now reflects the ongoing uncertainty about how the AV transition will impact Uber’s economics. The market is pricing in some risk that Uber’s margins or market share could be pressured.
So, the thesis is not broken, but it’s definitely more nuanced. It’s not a clear-cut growth story anymore, it’s a story with some risk premium attached.
My take
In my opinion, Uber is still a good value with growth optionality, but investors should be prepared for some bumps as the AV story unfolds. The thesis is unchanged, but patience and a long-term view are key here.
EQT Corp – February update
30 Jan: $57.73
27 Feb: $61.42
That is a gain of about +6.4% for the month. When you add that to January’s performance, we are looking at a very healthy start to 2026.
It’s not a vertical moonshot, but it is the kind of steady, upward grind that suggests institutional money is getting comfortable with the valuation again.
What happended in February
So, what actually happened in February to keep the bid under EQT? In my opinion, it wasn’t just one single headline, but a combination of factors that favored the big gas producers.
Natural gas strip pricing
The forward curve for natural gas showed some resilience this month. While spot prices can be a roller-coaster, the “strip” (what gas will cost months from now) is what really drives EQT’s future cash flow projections. The market seems to be pricing in a tighter supply-demand balance for the coming seasons.
Operational efficiency and guidance
During February, the conversation in the sector shifted toward capital discipline. Investors are rewarding companies that promise to keep production flat and return every spare cent to shareholders. EQT has been vocal about this and the market is starting to believe them.
The LNG export narrative
There has been renewed chatter about U.S. LNG export capacity coming online later this year and into 2027. EQT is perfectly positioned to feed that global demand. Not only does this provide a floor for prices, but it also gives EQT a “growth” story that doesn’t require them to over-drill their own acreage.
Thesis check
I think the thesis is not only intact, it’s actually strengthening.
EQT is trading at a reasonable multiple of its projected free cash flow. If you believe that natural gas is the “bridge fuel” for the next decade, EQT is the cleanest way to play that. They have the scale, the low-cost structure, and the inventory to outlast almost anyone else.
A value trap happens when a stock looks cheap but the business is dying. EQT is the opposite. The business is generating real cash and they are using it to clean up the balance sheet. The only way this becomes a trap is if natural gas prices collapse and stay at sub-economic levels for years, which seems unlikely given the global energy setup.
My take
I like the way the management is talking right now. They aren’t chasing “growth for growth’s sake,” which was the sin of the last decade in the shale patch. Instead, they are focused on being a cash-flow machine.
EQT is proving that you don’t need to find a tiny micro-cap to get decent returns in the energy space. By focusing on operational excellence and returning capital, they are making themselves a “must-own” for anyone looking for energy exposure.
The momentum is clearly there, but remember, these names move with the commodity. Don’t be surprised if we see a breather in March after two green months, but for now, the trend is our friend.
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) – February update
Jan 30: $60.95
Feb 27: $65.89
Change: about +8.1% for the month, a clear acceleration from January’s modest 3.5% gain.
This move came alongside the release of Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings in mid-February, which gave investors fresh data to digest.
What happened in February
Q4 2025 earnings beat and guidance update
Taylor Morrison reported Q4 2025 earnings that beat expectations:
EPS came in at $2.11, beating consensus by about $0.18.
Revenue was $2.10 billion, slightly above estimates.
Return on equity held strong at 15.2% with net margins around 10%.
The company also reiterated its 2026 outlook, signaling confidence in steady demand and manageable cost pressures. Management emphasized:
Continued focus on land acquisition and community development
Flexibility to adjust incentives if mortgage rates fluctuate
Commitment to shareholder returns, including buybacks
This earnings beat and positive tone gave the stock a clear catalyst to break out from January’s range.
Market environment and housing sector sentiment
February saw some easing in mortgage rates and growing optimism that the Fed might start cutting rates later this year. This helped homebuilders broadly, and TMHC benefited as a well-positioned, high-quality player.
Investors also digested the company’s strong brand reputation and conservative balance sheet, which we discussed last month. These factors helped TMHC outperform many peers who are more exposed to riskier segments or weaker balance sheets.
Institutional buying continues
Institutional investors kept adding to TMHC shares, reinforcing the narrative of growing confidence. The steady inflow of smart money supports the stock’s upward momentum and reduces volatility.
Thesis check
The core thesis remains intact and arguably stronger after February’s results.
Valuation: the stock now trades around 8.5x earnings, still low for a company with 15% ROE and a strong brand.
Earnings quality: the Q4 beat confirms operational resilience and pricing power.
Balance sheet: no surprises, debt remains manageable with good liquidity.
Market positioning: TMHC’s diversified product mix and trusted reputation continue to differentiate it.
My take
February was a strong month for Taylor Morrison, powered by a solid Q4 earnings beat and positive outlook. The stock’s 8%+ gain reflects renewed investor confidence in its quality and earnings power.
The thesis remains unchanged.
In my opinion, the risk/reward looks even better now. The market is rewarding TMHC for execution and quality, but the valuation still leaves room for upside if housing demand holds or improves.
TMHC is a quality cyclical trading at a value multiple.
I’d call it a Buy for investors comfortable with housing sector cyclicality.
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) - February update
Start of period (30 Jan): $37.04
End of period (28 Feb): $38.73
Gain: about +4.56% for the month
Not a blockbuster, but a solid gain that shows steady interest in Brazilian equities.
What happened in February?
February was a month where a few key factors played out:
Currency support: the Brazilian real (BRL) held steady against the US dollar, which is a big deal for EWZ since it’s priced in USD. A stable or strengthening BRL tends to boost returns for foreign investors.
Commodity tailwinds: oil and iron ore prices stayed firm, helping Petrobras and Vale, two of EWZ’s biggest holdings. This gave the ETF a nice boost.
Political and economic signals: Brazil’s government continued to navigate fiscal challenges, but there were no major shocks or surprises. The market seemed to shrug off ongoing inflation concerns, focusing more on global risk appetite and commodity demand.
Global sentiment: Emerging markets, including Brazil, benefited from a generally positive risk environment as investors looked beyond U.S. markets for growth opportunities.
Overall, the market mood was cautiously optimistic and EWZ reflected that.
Thesis check
Here’s my take on the core thesis for EWZ after February’s action:
Valuation and yield: EWZ remains attractively valued compared to many developed markets, with a decent dividend yield that adds income support.
Currency and commodity exposure: the BRL’s stability and steady commodity prices continue to be key upside drivers.
Political/fiscal risk: no new red flags emerged, so the risk of Brazil turning into a value trap remains low for now.
So, the thesis is unchanged.
The ETF is still a play on Brazil’s natural resource wealth, financial sector, and the potential for currency appreciation.
My take
I think EWZ is still a good way to get diversified exposure to Brazil’s market, especially if you believe in the BRL holding up and commodities staying supportive.
Keep an eye on Brazil’s fiscal policy and inflation data, though. If those start to deteriorate, the risk of a value trap scenario rises. But for now, I’d say hold steady and enjoy the ride.