Asymmetric Commodity Portfolio update: up 1.73% in July 2025! 💰📈
Asymmetric Commodity Portfolio has seen a 1.73% increase in value in July. 🚀
The portfolio value has increased 19.97% since the portfolio launch on April 9, 2025. 📈
Portfolio page is updated with the details. 🗂️
I have my skin in the game, this portfolio is not a model portfolio. Paid subscribers are able to see proof of transactions.
Below is a detailed update about each equity in the portfolio. 📝
🥇 Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC): turning everything to gold
Kinross Gold quietly delivered solid performance, 2.63%.
Kinross delivered a masterclass in mining execution.
Record cash flows, massive shareholder returns, operational excellence and a pipeline of high-quality development projects. The 68% margin expansion while maintaining strong production volumes demonstrates the kind of operational leverage that creates long-term value.
Record-breaking performance:
Record free cash flow: $646.6 million
Operating cash flow: $992.4 million
Net earnings: $530.7 million ($0.43 per share)
Adjusted EPS: $0.44 vs. consensus $0.34 (29% beat)
Production & costs:
Production: 512,574 gold equivalent ounces
Production cost: $1,074 per ounce sold
💎 The shareholder bonanza that's just getting started
$225 million in share buybacks have already been completed, representing nearly half of their ambitious $500 million buyback target for 2025.
When you add in their consistent quarterly dividends, Kinross has already returned $300 million to shareholders in just the first half of the year.
They are on track to deliver $650 million in total shareholder returns by year-end rewarding patient investors.
🏗️ Building tomorrow's production profile
Kinross is methodically building its future production capacity through three key development projects that should drive growth well into the next decade. The Great Bear project in Canada continues moving forward on schedule, with surface facilities taking shape and exploration work progressing as planned. This is designed to become a major contributor to Kinross's production profile for years to come.
Over in Nevada, the Round Mountain Phase X project is delivering exactly what management hoped for. With more than 4,500 meters of underground development completed, drilling results are confirming both strong grades and impressive widths in the target areas. What's particularly encouraging is that the mineralization appears to extend beyond what they originally expected, which could make this expansion even more valuable than initially projected.
Meanwhile, at Curlew, the drilling program keeps hitting high-grade zones with good widths, setting up what could become a very profitable addition to their operations. These results suggest Curlew has the potential to generate strong margins and meaningfully contribute to overall profitability once it comes online.
💪 A financial position that opens doors
With $1.136 billion in cash on hand, Kinross has built the kind of financial strength that most mining companies can only dream about. When you add in their total liquidity of $2.8 billion, they've essentially created a war chest that gives them tremendous flexibility to pursue opportunities as they arise.
Perhaps more importantly, their net debt load is almost negligible at just $100 million and management expects to eliminate even that small amount by the third quarter. This means Kinross will soon be operating as a debt-free company, which is remarkably rare in the capital-intensive mining industry.
This financial strength translates into real competitive advantages. They can fund their development projects without having to rely on external financing, they can weather commodity price downturns better than their peers and they're positioned to make strategic acquisitions when attractive opportunities present themselves.
🎯 Management's confident outlook for 2025
When management reaffirms their full-year guidance after delivering such strong results, it signals genuine confidence in their ability to execute. Their target of producing 2.0 million gold equivalent ounces reflects steady, reliable performance across all their operations.
The cost guidance tells an equally compelling story. At $1,120 per ounce for production costs and $1,500 for all-in sustaining costs, Kinross is positioned among the lower-cost producers in the industry. With gold prices where they are today, these cost levels support very healthy margins and strong cash generation.
They're also planning to invest $1,150 million in capital expenditures this year, which strikes a good balance between maintaining their existing operations and advancing their growth projects. This level of investment should support both current production and future expansion.
What's particularly noteworthy is how tight their guidance ranges are, just ±5% on all key metrics. In an industry where companies often provide much wider ranges due to operational uncertainty, this precision suggests management has strong visibility into their operations and confidence in their ability to deliver what they promise.
My take
I think Kinross is in the early stages of a multi-year re-rating as investors recognize they've evolved from a cyclical gold miner into a premium operator with sustainable competitive advantages. The Q2 results provide compelling evidence that this transformation is real and accelerating.
The combination of record cash flows, disciplined capital allocation, promising development projects and strong operational execution creates a compelling investment case.
🟡 GLD (SPDR Gold Shares): the quiet month
GLD closed July with a -0.61% drop, our option spread went -0.23% down.
Gold spent most of July consolidating in a tight range, building energy like a coiled spring. Then came the late-July rally that reminded everyone why gold remains the ultimate portfolio insurance policy. Trading volumes were lighter than usual (classic summer behavior) but the growth in interest as the month closed suggested smart money was quietly positioning.
🌍 The geopolitical events that keeps gold relevant
South China Sea headlines and renewed Middle East concerns are exactly the kind of background uncertainty that keeps institutional investors allocating to gold as portfolio insurance.
Asian central banks continued their systematic gold accumulation, providing a steady bid under the market that most retail investors completely ignore. When central banks are buying, it's usually smart to pay attention.
💰 The ETF flow
GLD saw modest inflows in the second half of July after a sluggish start, suggesting investors were cautiously re-engaging after sitting out the spring volatility.
The hesitant inflows tell a story of investors who want gold exposure but are waiting for confirmation. When that confirmation comes, the inflows can become dramatically more substantial.
My take
GLD might feel sleepy right now, but that's often when the best setups develop. Patience beats timing in the gold market.
The macro setup looks increasingly favorable. Fed constraints, global uncertainty,and central bank buying create a supportive backdrop that could persist for years.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF): gold miners take center stage 🚀⛏️
GDX closed July with -0.81% drop, but our options spread increased 1.63%.
GDX spent most of July in a tight consolidation range, with a brief mid-month dip that got quickly bought up in the final week.
🏆 The earnings season
The Big Three delivered: Barrick, Newmont, and Agnico Eagle all reported results that told the same story: steady production, controlled costs and strong cash flow generation.
This is a mature industry that's learned how to generate consistent returns.
While a few companies flagged higher energy and labor costs, the overall message was clear: miners have figured out how to operate efficiently even in an inflationary environment. That's the kind of operational discipline that creates sustainable competitive advantages.
Multiple companies announced dividend increases, signaling management confidence and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. When miners start acting like dividend aristocrats, you know something fundamental has changed.
💰 The gold price sweet spot that unlocks value
The $2,350-$2,420 range: gold's July trading range might have looked boring, but it represented a Goldilocks scenario for miners: high enough to generate massive cash flows, stable enough to allow for predictable planning.
The brief spike after the Fed meeting reminded everyone that gold miners offer leveraged exposure to monetary policy shifts. When gold moves $50, miners can move 10-15%.
That's the kind of operational leverage that creates wealth during the right macro environment.
If gold holds above $2,300 and miners continue executing operationally, there's significant upside potential as the market re-rates these companies based on their improved fundamentals.
With strong balance sheets, disciplined cost structures, and diversified operations, today's miners are much better positioned to weather commodity downturns than their predecessors.
GDX offers amplified exposure to gold price movements without the single-company risk of individual miners. When gold moves higher, miners typically move 2-3 times as much.
My take
GDX is a bet on operational excellence, capital discipline and shareholder-friendly management teams that have learned from past mistakes.
July's steady performance masked the fundamental improvements that are reshaping the entire sector.
These companies are generating substantial cash flows while trading at reasonable valuations, the kind of opportunity that creates long-term wealth.
We are witnessing the maturation of an entire industry that's learned how to generate consistent returns while maintaining exposure to one of the world's most important commodities.
🥈 SLV (iShares Silver Trust)
In July SLV closed July with a 1.55% gain, but our options spread increased 5.08%.
Silver also rides the coattails of a broader precious metals surge as investors scrambled for inflation protection and safe-haven assets.
But silver is not just a monetary metal anymore.
Solar panel installations and electronics manufacturing are creating genuine industrial demand.
Silver supply growth hasn't kept pace with industrial demand, creating a structural deficit that could support higher prices for years.
As the green energy transition accelerates, this industrial demand could become a major price driver.
Growing institutional interest in silver as both an inflation hedge and industrial play could provide consistent buying pressure that supports higher price levels.
Silver rewards patient investors who understand its long-term value proposition, not momentum chasers looking for quick profits.
We're witnessing the early stages of a structural shift in silver demand that could support higher prices for the next decade.