Assymetric Edge portfolio update: up 4.90% in October, 69.83% since launch (in 7 months)
October was an extremely volatile month with a solid performance by the end of the month. The combined portfolio hit a 4.90% return (compared to S&P500 2.88%)
It shows that the different positions are complementing each other quite well. By looking at everything together, we can see where the real strengths are and in my opinion this approach will help guide smarter moves going forward.
This cumulative performance of the Asymmetric Edge portfolio to 69.83% since launch on April 10, 2025.
It is more than double the S&P500 performance (29.84%) in the same period.
So, portfolio continues to perform and in less than 7 months, the portfolio has already more than doubled what many investors would hope to see in a strong year.
Long stock positions still make up the largest share of the portfolio, while the short option positions come from the Milk the Watchlist service.
My long positions continue to lean heavily into Energy, Health Care and Basic Materials, reflecting my conviction in these sectors.
This is how the performance of individual holdings looks like (with dividend reinvestment and currency fluctuations included):
Paid subscribers: scroll down for the summary with full information
Transactions
New purchases in October:
basic material ETF
a natural gas company
I moderately traded PUT options in October. 1 option expired and and 1 new transaction was made, which expired also in October without problem so we could keep the premium.
Update on the positions - 2025 October
Kinross Gold (KGC) — October Update
Performance
Price on Sep 30: $24.85
Price on Oct 31: $23.24
Monthly change: −6.5%
KGC slipped in October. Not a disaster, but it lagged the surge in gold and the miners basket for most of the month.
What happened in October and why it mattered
Gold ripped to fresh records in mid‑October
December futures moved above $4,000 on Oct 7, with ongoing strength through mid‑month. That’s usually a tailwind for miners, but KGC didn’t fully participate as investors rotated within the group and awaited earnings and capital‑return clarity in early November.
Analyst stance improved through Oct, then a late‑month wobble
Targets were raised across the street in the Oct 10–16 window. Later in the month, Cormark downgraded to Market Perform on Oct 29, which likely capped the rally into month‑end.
Company‑specific news was light during October
Kinross set its Q3 results date on Oct 2, then the big updates arrived just after month‑end, on Nov 4. Those included a dividend increase, strong cash flow and an intent to redeem $500M of 2027 notes, all supportive for the equity. For the record, Q3 results landed ahead of expectations on adjusted EPS, with record free cash flow and guidance intact for 2025 production and costs.
October was a “wait for the print” month. Gold soared, but KGC’s stock paused as investors wanted confirmation on cash returns, costs and Q4 run‑rate. The late‑month downgrade and some profit taking into earnings did the rest.
Thesis check, value or value trap?
Original thesis, in short:
Tight operating set with leverage to gold at Tasiast, Paracatu and U.S. ops.
Clean balance sheet trending to net cash, enabling higher capital returns.
Great Bear and underground projects add medium‑term optionality.
What changed in October:
Macro improved for gold. Rate‑cut expectations and risk appetite for gold miners rose. That supports the top line if prices hold.
Street sentiment warmed, then cooled slightly at month‑end. Typical into an earnings print.
What we learned just after October that matters for the thesis:
Q3 showed strong profitability and record free cash flow, even with royalties higher due to higher gold prices. Management reaffirmed the 2025 production and cost framework, increased the dividend 17% and announced a $500M note redemption. This is exactly the capital discipline we wanted to see.
What I think:
The thesis is unchanged, even a bit stronger after early‑November details. The stock’s October dip looks more like timing and positioning than a crack in fundamentals.
With gold this high, royalties lift unit costs, but absolute dollars and margins still expand. That is fine in my book.
Balance sheet strength and the step‑up in returns reduce downside. Not only does this limit dilution risk, it also gives management flexibility to pace project spend.
What I’m watching next
Gold price and implied royalty take, since that swings all‑in costs and free cash flow.
Q4 production cadence at Tasiast and Paracatu, plus any updates on U.S. underground ramps.
Great Bear timeline, spend and early metrics. Optionality is great, but returns on capital are better.
Ongoing capital returns, buyback pace and any further balance sheet moves.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) - October update
Performance
GLD moved from $355.47 on Sep 30 to $368.12 on Oct 31, up about 3.6% in October.
That lagged spot gold a bit, which the World Gold Council says finished October up roughly 4.9% in USD terms after hitting an intra‑month record near $4,294/oz on Oct 20 before pulling back into month‑end.
Why the gap vs spot?
Normal stuff: GLD’s expense ratio, timing, cash balances and small tracking differences.
Nothing odd.
What happened in October
Gold made fresh all‑time highs in early to mid October as safe‑haven demand stayed strong and markets leaned toward Fed cuts into year‑end, while the dollar’s moves created some swings. The World Gold Council highlighted the $4,000/oz milestone and the drivers, including geopolitical risk and investor inflows.
Late in the month, we saw a “momentum flush” and a firmer dollar. That caused a quick pullback from the highs, but gold still finished October higher overall.
Day to day, headlines tied swings to geopolitics, US inflation prints and shifting odds on Fed policy.
In short, October was hot early, choppy late, but ended green.
Thesis check, still intact?
The GLD thesis is unchanged.
It gives you:
Clean exposure to the gold price with high liquidity.
A hedge when growth or policy risks rise.
A diversifier when stocks and bonds wobble.
What could break it?
A sharp and sustained USD rally, a hawkish Fed surprise, or fast risk‑on with easing geopolitical stress. We did see a quick shakeout in late October as the dollar firmed and traders took profits, but the underlying setup, including persistent central‑bank demand and ongoing policy uncertainty, still supports the long‑term case for holding some gold exposure via GLD.
My take:
Gold had a big run in 2025 and is allowed to breathe. Pullbacks are normal. If anything, they reset positioning.
What moved the gold price in October
New ATHs earlier in the month on safe‑haven demand and rate‑cut expectations.
A stronger dollar and profit‑taking into month‑end trimmed gains but did not change the broader uptrend.
Macro prints and Fed chatter kept volatility high, which tends to amplify short‑term moves.
Positioning for November
Expect chop. Gold is elevated versus longer averages and traders are quick to take profits.
For long‑term holders, I’d keep the GLD allocation steady. If you trim or add, do it in small clips on red days.
Watch the USD and real yields. If real yields slip and the dollar softens, that’s usually supportive. If the Fed talks tougher, we can see more quick air‑pockets.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - October update
Performance
Price on Sep 30: 76.40
Price on Oct 31: 72.06
Monthly return: about -5.7%
So, GDX slipped in October even as spot gold printed fresh records mid-month. That gap matters.
What happened and why it hit GDX
Gold blasted through key milestones early and mid October, topping 4,000 on Oct 8 and reaching an intramonth high near 4,294 on Oct 20, then faded into month end as the dollar firmed and momentum cooled. The World Gold Council called it a momentum “flush out” after very stretched readings and still noted gold finished October up roughly 5% in USD terms.
ETF flows stayed supportive. Global gold ETFs saw another month of net inflows and record AUM as trading volumes surged, though the late-month price reversal sparked profit taking and higher volatility.
Miners amplified the down move. By mid-October, GDX was extremely overbought versus its 200‑day average after a huge year-to-date run, which set it up for a sharper drawdown when gold cooled.
October was a textbook case of “gold up for the month, miners down” because of timing. Gold rallied hard, peaked, then sold off into the close. Miners, with 2–3x beta to gold and very crowded positioning, bore the brunt of the reversal.
The stronger USD into month end and “take-some-off” behavior after big gains added pressure. Nothing in October suggested a break in the structural bull case for gold.
Thesis check: unchanged, with better entry after the dip
Core idea intact: at current gold prices, large and mid-cap miners in GDX should produce strong free cash flow and have meaningful earnings leverage to gold price moves. That leverage cuts both ways, but it is the core reason to own GDX when the gold trend is up. WGC’s data shows gold’s fundamental backdrop remains constructive, even if it needs to cool off tactically.
Positioning reset is healthy: the late-month drawdown cleaned up technicals and some hot money. That usually improves forward return potential for miners, provided gold consolidates above prior support and macro doesn’t flip.
Valuation still reasonable: despite a big YTD advance into mid-October, sector valuations were not extreme on a gold-relative basis, according to recent analysis. That argues against the “end of cycle” narrative and supports a pause rather than a peak.
Risks I’m watching:
A deeper gold pullback below recent support would likely push GDX lower, fast.
Cost inflation and capex creep at select miners can still bite, even with strong gold.
USD strength and higher real yields would be tactical headwinds.
iShares Silver Trust (SLV) - October update
Performance
Start: $42.37 on Sep 30
End: $44.01 on Oct 31
Monthly change: +3.9%
A steady October for SLV. Under the hood, it was a noisy month for silver with sharp intra-month moves, but SLV finished green.
What happened and why it mattered
Big-picture strength in silver prices continued. Spot silver traded in the high 40s and even pierced the low 50s intramonth, supported by softer real yields and a weaker dollar narrative. Several desks highlighted persistent ETF inflows and tight physical markets as key drivers.
Physical tightness showed up in elevated lease rates and talk of low deliverable inventories, which tends to exaggerate price spikes when investor demand picks up.
Industrial demand stayed front and center. Solar PV and electronics remain the structural engine, with 2025 still expected to be another deficit year for the market.
Why SLV did not match the intramonth fireworks: SLV reflects basket NAV and end-of-day pricing and it can lag sharp spot moves or differ slightly from headline prints. That basis effect and timing is normal. My take, the green close for October lines up with the constructive silver backdrop, even if the daily swings were larger than SLV’s month-end change suggests.
News and event impact
Rates and the dollar: markets leaned toward easier policy into late 2025 and softer real yields, a tailwind for non-yielding assets like silver. A weaker dollar usually supports precious metals.
ETF flows and positioning: reports flagged strong YTD inflows into silver ETPs, a direct demand channel that tightens the market when inventories are thin.
Physical tightness: elevated lease rates and talk of delivery tightness amplified price action, especially during risk-on bursts.
Net effect on SLV: positive.
These forces support silver spot and, by extension, SLV’s NAV. The volatility cuts both ways in the short term, but October’s close says buyers still had the upper hand.
Thesis check
The core thesis for SLV is intact. You own it to capture silver’s dual role, store-of-value plus industrial growth, without company-specific mining risk. The structural deficit story and PV demand are still doing the heavy lifting .
Not only are real yields supportive, but investor flows into silver products remain constructive. That said, ETF flows are fickle. If they reverse, price can give back gains quickly.
At current levels, I still see attractive medium-term risk‑reward if you can handle swings. Silver is the higher-beta precious metal. It overshoots, then snaps back. That is the feature, not a bug.
SLV is still reasonable for a diversified portfolio slice. The long-term setup, deficits plus green demand, is unchanged to positive. The risk is a sentiment flip in ETFs or a real-yields bounce. Position size accordingly and expect chop. If you want to be tactical, buy weakness into the mid-40s on SLV and trim into outsized spikes.
What I’m watching next
Weekly ETF flow data for SLV and peers. Sustained inflows would keep the floor firm.
Real yields and the dollar. A sharp rebound would be a headwind.
PV installation data and any semiconductor cycle softening.
COMEX and LBMA inventory color and lease rates for signs of tightness easing or worsening.
Aberdeen Standard Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT)
Price on Oct 17 (entry): $146.21
Price on Oct 31: $143.54
October performance (from the entry): about −1.8%
Full-month move (approximate mid-month to month-end context): platinum was choppy, finishing slightly lower into month-end.
What happened in October
Here’s the short version: macro headwinds outweighed improving fundamentals.
Stronger dollar, higher real yields: As bond yields climbed and the dollar stayed firm, precious metals faced pressure. Platinum, while partly an industrial metal, still trades with the precious complex. Risk-off flows did not help either.
China auto softness, but not falling apart: Auto demand indicators in China were mixed in October, which matters because autocatalysts are platinum’s largest end market. No collapse, just not enough strength to pull prices higher.
Load-shedding easing headlines from South Africa: Supply risk premium was a bit calmer as South African power constraints didn’t worsen in October. When immediate supply angst fades, spot can drift even if the longer-term deficit story is intact.
Positioning light: Futures positioning remained cautious, so there was little speculative fuel to drive a rally on modestly good news.
Netting it out, platinum traded in a narrow, slightly down channel. PPLT, which holds physical platinum, reflected that drift, ending a touch below your entry by month-end.
The thesis, in my opinion
My take is the core thesis is intact, though it will test patience.
Demand mix slowly shifting, not breaking:
Autocatalysts, especially in heavy-duty and in markets substituting away from palladium, remain supportive. Substitution continues, just not in a straight line month to month.
Industrial uses, including chemical and glass, are steady.
Jewelry is a swing factor, but it tends to follow consumer sentiment and price levels with a lag.
Supply still constrained over the cycle:
South African production remains structurally challenged by power reliability and grades.
Recycling supply is price sensitive and with prices not ripping higher, scrap doesn’t flood the market.
Long-run palladium-to-platinum substitution: this is a slow-burn tailwind. OEMs do not re-engineer catalysts every quarter, but over the next 1–3 years, platinum’s share should inch higher in gasoline autocats as palladium remains relatively tight.
What could break the thesis: a sharp and persistent global auto downturn, a strong and sustained dollar with higher real yields squeezing all precious metals, or a surprisingly large rebound in South African output. None of these are my base case, but they’re the risks to watch.
Is it still good value?
Platinum trades near the low end of its historical relationship to gold and remains discounted versus palladium on a utility basis. The market is paying to wait on gradual demand substitution and constrained supply.
That said, timing is tricky. This is a grindy asset. If you want quick catalysts, platinum can be frustrating. If you can hold through noise, the asymmetry looks reasonable to me.
How I’d frame it going forward
Near term, expect more chop around macro prints, the dollar and yields.
Medium term, I’m watching auto production trends, substitution commentary from OEMs and South African supply signals.
Positioning: For a long, I’d keep size moderate, consider adding on deeper dips toward technical support rather than chasing strength. If you like rules, a simple plan like “add 10–15% more if we see a clean retest of recent lows with stable auto data” can help.
Risk controls: If the dollar breaks meaningfully higher with real yields rising again, precious metals can see another leg down. Decide in advance whether you’d add, hold, or cut under that scenario.
Teekay Tankers (TNK) — October update
Performance
Start: $51.04 on Sep 30
End: $61.00 on Oct 31
Monthly move: roughly +19.5%
That is a strong month for a tanker name. It handily outperformed broader indices.
What moved the stock
Stronger spot rates into winter. Teekay’s October market note highlighted a sharp rise in seaborne crude exports as OPEC+ unwound supply cuts and Atlantic basin production ticked up. More barrels moving means higher utilization and firmer spot rates, which feed directly into TNK’s earnings power in the near term. In my opinion, that backdrop was the main driver of the rerating in October.
Geopolitical dislocations helped ton-miles. Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and fresh tariffs or sanctions reshaped some trade routes, adding distance and inefficiency. That usually helps tanker day rates, especially for mid-sized crude capacity like Aframax and Suezmax. Teekay called out these supports explicitly.
Q3 earnings catalyst at month end. The company reported Q3 results on Oct 29 with higher net income and declared a dividend, reinforcing the cash generation story right into the rate strength. Markets tend to pre-position ahead of prints when spot data looks good, which likely added to the bid through late October.
Sector tailwinds signaled persistence. Teekay’s October outlook suggested inventories may build and the futures curve could slip into contango, both of which can support floating storage and extend tightness. Normal winter weather delays also help rates. In short, October set up a favorable seasonal tape.
Thesis check
The core TNK thesis is about leveraged exposure to crude spot rates via a relatively young, mid-sized fleet, disciplined capital allocation and an underbuilt orderbook industry-wide.
Near-term earnings power, still there. October’s move in the stock mirrors improving cash generation as spot stayed firm. The month-end print and dividend underline that the cash is real, not theoretical.
Cycle support, not just a one-off. Supply growth in tankers remains constrained by an aging fleet and limited net newbuilds, even with 2026 deliveries coming. Demand for ton-miles is being nudged higher by longer trade routes and dislocations. That combination usually keeps mid-cycle rates above historical averages, which is good for TNK’s returns.
Risks to watch. If OPEC+ pivots back to cuts, or if oil demand softens faster than expected, spot could cool. Newbuild deliveries picking up next year are a headwind, although the company and the industry still see limited net fleet growth versus scrapping. Volatility is part of the package.
It is still good value on cycle-normalized earnings, but less of a layup after a near 20% jump in a single month. If you own it, I would ride the cycle and let winter do its work, while being realistic about drawdowns. If you are initiating, scale entries. Tankers can give back moves just as fast as they made them.
Permian Resources (PR) — October Update
Performance
PR slipped about 24 cents, or 1.9%. Not dramatic, but it reflects softer crude into month‑end and some rotation out of small‑mid cap energy.
Liquids-heavy names with Midland and Delaware exposure held up better than gassier peers. PR’s drop was pretty measured.
What happened and why it matters
Oil price drift, not fundamentals: WTI faded late in the month after a firm September, pressuring E&Ps broadly. PR trades with oil beta, so a slight giveback is normal.
Execution still the key story: PR’s thesis hinges on steady multi-zone development in the Delaware Basin, efficient pad drilling and maintaining top-tier recycling of capital. October did not bring a company‑specific negative, just macro chop.
Balance sheet and cash returns: the market keeps rewarding E&Ps that run clean balance sheets and return cash consistently. PR’s policy of a base dividend plus specials/buybacks tied to free cash flow stays a support, especially when prices wobble.
M&A backdrop: the basin remains active on transactions, but nothing in October specifically altered PR’s acreage quality or development runway. If anything, consolidation underscores the value of concentrated, contiguous blocks.
October was noise. The small dip looks more like commodity and factor moves than any change in PR’s operational outlook.
Thesis check
Core thesis, unchanged: PR is a scaled Delaware operator with competitive drilling inventory, improving capital efficiency and a shareholder-return framework that flexes with prices. That mix supports resilient free cash flow at mid‑cycle oil.
Inventory and costs: the crux is depth of high-return locations and holding service costs in check. PR has been disciplined on development cadence and pad design, which helps keep well performance and costs predictable.
Cash generation at mid-cycle: even with oil easing in October, the model still throws off cash at $70–75 WTI scenarios. That underpins variable distributions and opportunistic buybacks.
Risks to watch: sustained oil below $65, service cost re-acceleration, or well productivity slippage. None of these flashed red in October.
Valuation: shares trade at a reasonable multiple on 2025 free cash flow versus Permian peers. Not screaming cheap, but still attractive if you believe in stable $70s oil and continued execution.
The slight October decline does not dent the long-run setup. If anything, minor weakness can be a chance to add, provided you’re comfortable with oil volatility. In my opinion, the edge here remains operational, not thematic, which I prefer.
New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC) — October update
Performance
Price on 30 Sep: A$3.935
Price on 31 Oct: A$4.140
October return: +5.2%
Nice, steady month. The stock clawed back some of September’s ex‑dividend weakness and tracked a firmer tone across Aussie energy names.
What happened in October and why it mattered
Dividend housekeeping early in the month
New Hope posted a dividend update on 2 Oct and then filed an application for quotation of securities on 3 Oct, likely tied to vesting or plan shares. These are routine items for NHC around reporting and payout windows. In my view, the market read this as neutral to slightly positive, a signal the capital return machine is still on.AGM materials out mid‑October
The Notice of AGM and proxy form landed on 16 Oct. No curveballs in the agenda from what’s public and no indication of strategy pivots. Markets prefer boring here.End‑month admin on securities
On 31 Oct, NHC posted notifications about unquoted securities and cessation of securities. This usually reflects option or rights movements, not operational change. I treat it as tidying the cap table, minimal dilution impact.Macro backdrop helped a bit
Thermal coal benchmarks have been sitting in a post‑2022 normalization range through 2025. The IEA’s mid‑year update had Newcastle 6,000 kcal FOB around USD 100–125 across 2024–2025 as markets reset from the energy crisis spike. October did not deliver a big price shock either way, so cash flow expectations were stable, which supports NHC’s defensive yield case, in my opinion.
October’s +5% looks like a relief bounce after going ex‑div in late September and a bit of re‑rating as investors rotated back into high‑yield energy. No stock‑specific surprise, which is fine.
Thesis check
NHC is a high‑yield thermal coal producer with two key assets, Bengalla and New Acland and disciplined capital returns when prices cooperate. It trades on modest earnings multiples versus cash generation in mid‑cycle coal pricing. This is still intact.
What strengthens the thesis
Coal prices have normalized, not collapsed. The IEA sees a softer but relatively stable tape versus 2022 extremes, which still supports solid margins for efficient producers like NHC. IEA
Ongoing operational delivery and Stage 3 New Acland ramp underpin volumes into FY26.
The company’s history of fully franked dividends keeps income buyers engaged and the October filings were consistent with that pattern.
What could break it
Further structural demand erosion if China and India work through stockpiles faster than expected or accelerate substitution.
ESG constraints on financing and long‑dated approvals can compress multiples regardless of earnings.
Cost creep at mines or logistics shocks, which the sector has seen before.
At around A$4.14, NHC looks like a solid value and income play. The market knows the long‑term decarbonization story, so that risk is in the multiple. Near‑term, cash yields and balance sheet strength matter more. If coal stays near the current IEA‑framed range, dividends should remain attractive. I’d call the thesis unchanged and still reasonable for investors comfortable with commodity and ESG headline risk.
Genmab (GMAB) — October Update
Stock performance
October return: −6.7%
Price moved from $30.67 on Sep 30 to $28.61 on Oct 31
GMAB slipped in October, roughly in line with a weak biotech tape and some worries around partner readouts and valuation. Nothing broke in the fundamentals, but sentiment cooled.
What happened and why it mattered
Biotech risk-off tone, again
Funding worries and higher-for-longer rates kept pressure on growthy healthcare. Large-cap quality like GMAB held better than SMID-cap biotech, but it still felt the downdraft.Partner headlines and data timing
Genmab’s revenue is leveraged to partnered programs, especially Darzalex with J&J and Tivdak with Seagen/Pfizer. When partners push or stagger updates, the stock can drift. In October, the market wanted fresh catalysts and did not get big new data. No blowups, just a vacuum that let the macro set the tone.Currency and optical comps
Reported numbers for European-domiciled biopharma can look choppy when FX wiggles, which adds noise to near-term models. Traders used it as an excuse to fade.
The drawdown compresses multiples on a pipeline that, in my opinion, remains high quality with multiple late-stage and lifecycle-expansion shots. No thesis damage from October-specific news.
Thesis check
The thesis is unchanged, still attractive.
Durable base from Darzalex royalties
Darzalex continues to expand in earlier lines and geographies. The royalty stream underpins cash flows, which is exactly what you want in a volatile biotech market.Multiple shots on goal
GMAB’s antibody engine, including bispecifics and next‑gen formats, keeps feeding mid-to-late stage programs. The company has shown a repeatable ability to move assets into partnerships and to approvals. That platform repeatability is the edge.Balance sheet strength
Strong net cash gives Genmab flexibility to fund internal programs and in‑license selectively, without diluting shareholders at bad times. That reduces downside in tough markets.Risks to watch
Partner dependence, timelines and labeling decisions sit partly outside GMAB’s control.
Competitive crowding in heme-onc and solid tumors can cap peak sales for some assets.
If macro stays tight and the sector remains out of favor, multiple expansion could be delayed.
The story today is sentiment and timing, not fundamentals.
Merck (MRK) — October update
Stock performance
October move: $83.93 to $85.98, up about 2.4%.
A quiet, positive month.
What happened in October and why it matters
Q3 results landed Oct 30. Revenue grew to $17.3B, Keytruda rose 10% to $8.1B and full‑year EPS guidance was nudged higher. Gardasil was weak on China, but Animal Health and new launches helped. In my view, the mix was fine, not flashy, but the guidance raise matters for sentiment.
Subcutaneous Keytruda (QLEX) won FDA approval across all adult solid‑tumor indications. Faster administration is a real‑world advantage for clinics and patients and it should defend share as the 2028 LOE approaches.
Pipeline momentum continued. positive topline from the third Phase 3 CORALreef Lipids trial for enlicitide, an oral PCSK9, strengthens Merck’s cardiometabolic optionality. If approved, this could be a meaningful new franchise.
Verona Pharma deal closed in October, adding Ohtuvayre for COPD, a potential multibillion opportunity over time. This diversifies away from oncology.
The offset: Gardasil sales fell on China weakness. That is a real headwind in the near term.
My take on impact:
Near term, QLEX approval and guidance raise likely supported the stock into month‑end. The Gardasil dip capped upside.
Medium term, subcutaneous Keytruda, earlier‑stage oncology use, plus enlicitide and Ohtuvayre, all help narrow the Keytruda 2028 gap. Not solved, but the path is clearer.
Thesis check
Original idea, simplified: own a high‑quality pharma with best‑in‑class oncology, strong cash flow and a broadening pipeline to bridge the Keytruda LOE.
Is it intact? Yes. In my opinion, October strengthened the case:
Execution: raised EPS guidance, solid Keytruda growth and continued Animal Health resilience.
Defense: QLEX makes the franchise stickier with easier administration.
Diversification: enlicitide could open a new, durable cardiometabolic stream, while Ohtuvayre adds respiratory exposure.
Key risks I’m watching:
The Keytruda cliff from 2028. Even with QLEX and earlier‑stage use, LOE is a fact.
China vaccine demand for Gardasil, which hit results this quarter.
U.S. pricing pressure and IRA impacts on the broader portfolio.
I think the stock remains a buy‑and‑hold or accumulate‑on‑dips. Expect choppiness around vaccine headlines and policy noise. The pipeline depth and BD discipline give me comfort. If you want a rocketship, this isn’t it. If you want a compunder with improving optionality, it fits.
Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) — October update
Performance
Price on Sep 30: $73.34
Price on Oct 31: $65.19
October return: -11.1%
HALO had a tough month. It finished down about 11%, giving back part of its YTD gains.
What happened in October and why it mattered
Announced Elektrofi acquisition, up to $900 million
On Oct 1–2, Halozyme said it will buy Elektrofi, a microparticle-based subcutaneous drug delivery platform, for $750 million upfront plus up to $150 million in milestones. Strategically, this bolsters Halozyme’s leadership in subcutaneous formulations, pairs well with Enhanze and adds long-dated royalty potential starting around 2030. The initial read-through was positive, though investors began to weigh leverage and execution risk as the month progressed.
Leadership update
Halozyme appointed Cortney Caudill as Chief Operating Officer in early October, a signal they are building operating capacity as the platform and partner base scale. The market reaction was muted, but I see this as sensible blocking and tackling for a larger platform company.
Analyst color during the month
Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight but trimmed the target to $79 on Oct 20, citing solid royalty growth and cost control but modestly de-risking near term. Rating action like this usually reflects valuation discipline after a strong run rather than a change in business quality.
October saw a bit of factor churn in biotech and specialty pharma. Higher-rate jitters did not help anything carrying leverage or an M&A headline. HALO had both, which partly explains the drawdown.
My take on the stock move
The Elektrofi deal is strategically sound. It expands the subcutaneous toolbox and could open more partner programs, but it also adds balance sheet complexity. Investors defnitely spent the back half of the month repricing the higher leverage and pushing out value from royalties that kick in later.
No negative partner readouts hit in October. The core Enhanze partner set, like J&J’s Darzalex Faspro and Roche’s Ocrevus SC, stayed intact. That matters because the heart of the thesis is partner-driven volume and label expansion.
Thesis check
Original thesis in one line: Halozyme is a high-margin, capital-light drug delivery platform that converts partner wins into durable royalties and milestones.
What changed in October:
Added a second delivery modality with Elektrofi. This increases long-term option value, but introduces integration and timing risk.
Slightly more leverage to fund growth. In my opinion, the balance sheet is manageable given recurring royalty streams, but the market will stay sensitive to any bump in execution.
Still good value
Positives: diversified partner base, recurring royalty flywheel, continued shift of biologics to convenient subcutaneous dosing and operational scaling with a new COO.
Watchouts: integration of Elektrofi, regulatory policy noise on drug pricing and site-of-care economics and debt optics until we see incremental cash flow from new deals.
For me, this looks more like a temporarily de-risked multiple than a broken story. Not a trap unless royalty growth stalls, partner adoption slows, or leverage constrains capital allocation. None of those happened in October.
A quick peek beyond October for context: in early November, Halozyme beat on Q3 and raised 2025 guidance, which supports the underlying thesis of steady royalty growth and operating discipline.
What I’m watching next
Deal close and integration milestones for Elektrofi and any new partner programs that use both platforms.
Partner catalysts, especially additional indications and geographies for Enhanze-enabled products.
Balance sheet moves post-transaction and capital allocation, including any further refinancing.
Any signs of IRA or reimbursement changes that could shift the economics of subcutaneous versus IV administration.
Uber (UBER) — October update
Stock performance
Price on Sep 30: $97.97
Price on Oct 31: $96.50
Monthly change: down 1.5%
It was a calm drift lower rather than a move with conviction. Uber traded in a tight band most of the month and finished slightly red.
What happened in October and why it mattered
Macro tone did most of the work
Tech and growth stocks wobbled on rates and election chatter, so Uber’s slight dip tracks the tape. No company‑specific blowups.Autonomy narrative perked up late month
Analysts highlighted improving robotaxi risk‑reward as Waymo expanded to new cities and Uber keeps leaning into third‑party AV partnerships. That helps the “option value” story on autonomy without Uber needing to build it all in‑house. This widens Uber’s long‑run moat if economics pencil out.Setup into earnings turned constructive
The actual Q3 print landed right after month‑end and showed accelerating growth and record profitability, a useful cross‑check that October’s sideways trade wasn’t signaling fundamental slippage. Trips up 22% YoY, Gross Bookings up 21%, Adjusted EBITDA up 33% YoY to $2.3B. That is strong operating momentum.
Net-net, October felt like a pause while investors waited for numbers.
Thesis check
Core engine is intact
Mobility is growing double‑digits and throwing off cash. Delivery remains sticky post‑pandemic with improving margins. Ads and Uber One add high‑margin layers. The Q3 figures affirmed scale benefits and cost discipline.Capital returns support the floor
With sustained free cash flow and prior buyback authorization, I expect ongoing shareholder returns to underpin dips, even if the market chops around.Autonomy as a call option, not the base case
Partnerships with AV players, rather than building full‑stack autonomy, keeps capex light and upside alive. That’s the right approach in my view.Key risks I’m watching
Gig‑worker rules in the US and EU, competitive pricing pressure in Delivery and macro softness hitting discretionary rides. These can dent margin expansion in any given quarter.
Is it still good value? In my opinion, yes, for long‑term holders. Not “very cheap” on headline multiples, but the combination of durable demand, operating leverage and cash generation argues the thesis is unchanged. If you want perfection every quarter, you’ll be frustrated. If you want a scaled consumer platform with improving unit economics, this still fits.
ATKR October update: the quiet rebound
Price at September 30: $62.74
Price at October 31: $69.25 🚀
That’s a +10.4% gain in October and roughly +11.1% since your purchase. Not bad for a name that looked dead money just a month ago.
Here’s what happened in October and why I think the story is still intact.
I own these stocks through options assignment and sold CALL options at $65 on them, so my return is capped.
Stock performance
October brought back some life to ATKR. The stock climbed from the low 60s to the high 60s as sentiment improved around its strategic review and capital restructuring plan.
Two things helped:
Confidence returned after the September refinancing and portfolio reshaping update.
Investors started to see value in a 6x forward multiple for a company with consistent cash flow and strong competitive positions.
Basically, the market realized ATKR might have been overly punished after the August earnings drop and CEO retirement news.
What happened in October
While no new financials came out, the news flow stayed constructive:
Earnings date confirmed: Atkore announced Q4 FY2025 earnings would be out before market open on Nov 20, 2025 — calendar marked. This reassured investors that things are running smoothly post leadership change.
Ongoing portfolio review: The market kept digesting the late September update, where Atkore said it’s considering selling its HDPE pipe/conduit telecom business and consolidating plants to cut costs. October saw no fresh announcements, but analysts and investors took this as a real move, not lip service.
Analyst sentiment turning neutral: RBC lifted its price target to $61 from $60 and reiterated Sector Perform. Not a huge upgrade, but shows sentiment stabilizing. The same analysts who downgraded it in August are no longer pushing it lower — that’s a quiet win.
No bad surprises: Sometimes “no news” is the best news. October didn’t bring new charges, guidance cuts, or regulatory noise. Just operational stability.
Why the bounce makes sense
Markets often overreact to bad news — Atkore’s August earnings drop (-26% in one day) was a good example.
By October, the setup looked cleaner:
Leverage reduced after refinancing — now maturities pushed to 2032.
Cost cuts and rationalization on deck.
Strategic refocus on core electrical and safety infrastructure, which are sticky cash generators.
So the rebound didn’t need fireworks — just a bit less fear.
The thesis check
My core view hasn’t changed since you bought it.
I think the investment thesis — cash flow machine + disciplined capital allocation + optional catalyst from portfolio cleanup — still stands strong.
Thesis: Still intact, arguably stronger after the balance sheet cleanup.
Valuation: Still cheap at roughly 6–7× forward earnings and a ~2% yield.
Catalysts ahead: Q4 results and any sale of non-core assets.
Risks: New CEO transition remains a wildcard and earnings could stay soft if non-residential construction slows further into early 2026.
Thank you for the suggestion! I now updated the October update and put the table with full info behind the paywall. Let me know if further touch is needed to improve readability.
Thank you for the update. As a kind suggestion, for the monthly update paragraph (1 Etf, 1 natural gas company), you could mention right then and there what these stocks were/the amount and price, etc, so as to not chase the information elsewhere in the text.