Assymetric Edge portfolio update: up 14.14% in September, 64.93% since launch (in 6 months)
September was a really strong month, with the combined portfolio hitting an extraordinary 14.14% return (compared to S&P500 4.33%)
That’s a strong number in absolute terms. But it also shows that the different positions are complementing each other quite well. By looking at everything together, we can see where the real strengths are and in my opinion this approach will help guide smarter moves going forward.
This strong month also pushed the cumulative performance of the Asymmetric Edge portfolio to 64.93% since launch on April 10, 2025.
It is more than double the S&P500 performance (26.96%) in the same period.
So, in less than 6 months, the portfolio has already more than doubled what many investors would hope to see in a strong year.
Long stock positions still make up the largest share of the portfolio, while the short option positions come from the Milk the Watchlist service.
My long positions continue to lean heavily into Energy, Health Care and Basic Materials, reflecting my conviction in these sectors.
This is how the performance of individual holdings looks like (with dividend reinvestment and currency fluctuations included):
Transactions
No new purchase in September.
I sold MOL, the Hungarian Oil Company due to reasons I wrote about here. I realized 9.30% return. Without dividends and favorable currency fluctuations it would have been a loss (-6.5%).
And several PUT option selling transactions were made. LRN 0.00%↑ was heavily down (below $155 strike price) in mid September due to fraud allegation and significant insider sell transactions. This forced me to sell the options unfortunately with heavy loss as I wanted to avoid assignment.
Update on the positions - 2025 September
Kinross Gold (KGC) 🚀
The numbers that matter
Aug 29 → Sep 30: $20.90 → $24.85 (+18.9% in one month!)
My position: In at $14.53 (April 14) → +71% gain 🎯
That’s a serious win. September absolutely delivered.
🔥 What drove September’s rally
💰 Smart capital moves
Kinross cashed out chunks of its Asante Gold stake (Sep 8 & 23), pocketing ~C$119M while keeping upside via warrants.
Why this matters: they are shedding non-core risk, stacking cash and keeping the story clean. That’s exactly what you want to see.
📈 Momentum from a monster Q2
Record free cash flow ✅
Fatter margins ✅
2025 production target reaffirmed at ~2.0 Moz ✅
Kinross is roding the wave.
🧠 Thesis Check
✅ What’s working
Cash machine at current gold prices. Q2 proved the model works when gold cooperates.
Cleaner balance sheet. trimming Asante = more flexibility for buybacks or project funding.
No red flags. Tasiast, Paracatu, Great Bear all quiet on the operational front.
⚠️ What to watch
Unit costs (especially at Tasiast & Paracatu)
Sustaining capex discipline
Great Bear execution cadence
This is a cash-rich, high-leverage gold play with improving capital allocation. The run has been big, so volatility may be coming, but the setup into Q3 looks solid.
🎯 What should you do now?
Hold. Let Q3 come to you. No need to chase before Nov 4 (Q3 earnings).
If you want to add: wait for red days or possible post-earnings dip. FOMO kills returns in miners.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) 📈
The move
Aug 29 → Sep 30: $318.05 → $355.43 (+11.8%)
GLD absolutely ripped as spot gold hit fresh all-time highs into month-end.
🔥 What lit the fuse
1️⃣ The FED blinked
The FOMC cut rates 25 bps on Sep 17 and telegraphed more cuts ahead. Lower real yields = lower opportunity cost for holding gold. This was the main catalyst.
2️⃣ Macro anxiety spiked
Shutdown drama, softer growth signals —> uncertainty = gold’s best friend. As quarter-end approached, the safety bid intensified.
3️⃣ Dollar & rates turned friendly
A cooler USD + dovish Fed expectations = tailwinds for bullion. Multiple outlets tied 2025’s gold strength to this combo.
4️⃣ ETF flows surged
September saw above-expectation inflows into gold ETFs, amplifying the price move. When money floods in, momentum follows.
5️⃣ Central banks keep stacking
Structural demand from central banks remained rock-solid that is a steady, long-term anchor for the thesis.
💡 My take
September was the cleanest example this year of how fast gold reprices when:
✅ rate expectations break lower
✅ macro risk rises
Both happened at once.
The market is laser-focused on real yields and Fed policy. As cuts continue and growth wobbles, GLD stays supported. But if rate-cut odds fade, expect sharp pullbacks. That’s just how gold works.
🧠 Thesis check
Original Thesis
GLD is a liquid, low-maintenance hedge against equity/duration risk when real yields fall or uncertainty rises.
Yes, price is higher, but the drivers are intact and strengthening:
✅ Central bank demand robust
✅ Fed pivoting to easing
✅ Macro noise elevated
That combo supports holding a measured allocation.
September gave GLD a powerful, thesis-confirming push driven by rate cuts, softer real yields and rising uncertainty. The strategic case didn’t just survive, it got stronger.
Expect volatility. But the reason you own gold? Still 100% intact.
If anything, September reminded us why you keep some gold in the mix. 🥇
GDX September update: miners went parabolic ⛏️
The move
Aug 29 → Sep 30: $63.12 → $76.39 (+21.0%)
That’s a monster monthly move, even for miners.
🔥 What drove the surge
🥇 Gold hit fresh all-time highs
Investors flooded into safe havens as gold ripped to records.
💵 Dollar stayed weak
A softer USD mechanically lifts gold prices and miner margins. Revenues rise faster than costs. That’s pure leverage.
🏛️ Macro noise amplified
Shutdown fears, rate-cut hopes, sticky inflation all added fuel. Bloomberg called it a “perfect storm” for bullion.
📈 Miners did what they do best: torque
Gold typically moves 2–3x in miners. Gold rallied hard → GDX sprinted. Autumn seasonality helped too.
🏦 Structural demand stayed strong
Central banks kept stacking gold, anchoring the long-term bid. Strategists had already flagged elevated gold through late 2025.
💡 My take
This was a macro-driven melt-up:
✅ Dollar down
✅ Policy noise up
✅ Gold at records
✅ Miners delivering leverage
🎯 What this means for GDX now
Near-term (next 1–3 months)
Higher spot prices = fatter cash margins (many costs are fixed). That flows straight to free cash flow, balance-sheet repair and potential buybacks/dividends. September’s move is fundamentally supported, not just hot money.
Medium-term (3–12 months)
If gold consolidates at these levels → miners keep re-rating on stronger earnings power.
If gold keeps climbing → GDX can still outrun bullion.
Remember: Miners fall faster than gold when the tape turns. That hasn’t changed.
🧠 Thesis check
Central-bank demand + policy risk = structurally supportive.
Better capital discipline: industry learned from past cycles. Higher spot → sustained free cash flow, not just capex blowouts.
Leverage to bullionGDX is a 2–3x levered play on gold. If you believe gold holds, earnings power is underappreciated.
🔮 What I’m watching in October
Dollar & real yields: they steer gold, daily.
Fed language on cut pace: can reprice bullion (and miners) fast.
Company cost & capex updates: how much of the price move is dropping to the bottom line?
Keep your expectations realistic. Keep your sizing sane. 📈⛏️
iShares Silver Trust (SLV) September Update: Strong Month, Thesis Intact 📈
The move
September: up ~14%, closing near $42.40 and flirting with 52-week highs into early October.
Great month for silver holders. The move was orderly, rising volume on up days, shallow dips getting bought. That’s healthy trend behavior.
🔥 What drove the rally
1️⃣ Fed cut expectations = tailwind
Cooler inflation + market pricing for fall rate cuts = lower real yields. Non-yielding assets like silver love that setup.
2️⃣ Dollar drifted, silver ripped
A softer/choppy USD = rocket fuel for silver. The negative dollar-silver correlation was on full display this year.
3️⃣ Structural deficit still front & center
The Silver Institute’s 2025 survey shows multi-year deficits. Industrial demand high, mine supply constrained. When macro turns friendly, that’s pure fuel.
4️⃣ Industrial demand vibes improved
China’s September PMIs showed manufacturing stabilizing. Not a boom, but not falling apart—enough to support the industrial side of silver.
5️⃣ Momentum Headlines Pulled in Trend Followers
SLV repeatedly hit 52-week highs and topped ETF performance lists into month-end. That draws in the momentum crowd.
💡 My take
A clean macro window + tight physical balances = silver breaking out toward decade-type highs.
SLV, which holds physical silver, reflected that move 1:1.
🧠 Thesis check
Silver benefits from three levers: real yields, the dollar and industrial demand. When two of three line up → outsized moves.
The market’s in a structural deficit: solar PV, electrification, electronics = sticky demand.
SLV = straightforward, liquid spot exposure without mining risk.
September strengthened the thesis:
Fed pivot narrative intact. If real yields ease further, silver has room.
Fundamentals: deficit backdrop unresolved. Above-ground stocks aren’t infinite.
Positioning: sentiment improving but not at blow-off extremes. Not a crowded trade yet.
⚠️ What could go wrong
Sharp USD spike or hawkish Fed pivot: can hit silver fast.
Growth scare denting industrial demandCompresses the “dual-use” premium.VolatilitySilver swings harder than gold. Expect bigger drawdowns. That’s the deal.
🏆 Bottom line
SLV had a strong September on improving macro + tight supply. The thesis is unchanged and, in my view, a touch stronger.
If you hold SLV for diversification, inflation protection and cyclical kick, the setup still looks solid.
Just remember: volatility is part of the package. Buckle up. 🪙📈
Teekay Tankers (TNK) — September 2025 update 🚢
The numbers
September: up ~2.8% ($49.17 → $50.55)
Regular $0.25 dividend paid in August
Solid result in a choppy shipping tape. 💰
🌊 What happened in September
Modest move, mostly macro
Sector sentiment dipped late-month on shipping-regulation headlines, but that was industry noise, not TNK-specific.
Rates and macro jitters drove day-to-day swings.
No new TNK corporate events → next real catalyst is Q3 earnings in late October.
What I’m watching
The print + commentary on spot exposure and Q4 fixtures will steer the next leg.
🧠 Thesis check
What’s still working
Supply tight: orderbook reasonable for mid-size tankers. Older tonnage constrained by regs.
Trade dislocations: ton-miles stay supportive → higher utilization + longer voyages = fatter TCEs.
⚠️ Key risks
Rapid spot-rate softening: would hit earnings fast.
Higher compliance costs: environmental rules over time (even if near-term moves were just sentiment).
Oil demand slowdown or route normalization: could compress ton-miles and utilization.
🎯 What to do now
We’re up ~20% + Dividend in 5 Months
That’s a win. Here’s how I’d play it:
Hold into October earnings. Let the Q3 print and forward coverage guide the next move.
If TCEs + coverage look healthy → mid-$50s or even above is reasonable without blue-sky assumptions.
If rates roll over → consider trimming sizing rather than abandon the idea.
🏆 Bottom line
September was quiet, no drama, no new catalysts. The business backdrop didn’t change meaningfully.
Now let Q3 earnings (late October) do the talking. If the fundamentals hold, there’s more room. If they crack, you’ve got a cushion to trim into. 🚢📈
Permian Resources (PR) — September update 🛢️
The numbers
September: down ~10.4% ($14.30 → $12.81)
Dividend: $0.15/share went ex-div Sep 16, paid Sep 30 → ~4.7–4.9% annualized yield at current prices
🌪️ What hit the stock in September
1️⃣ Softer oil tape
WTI and Brent both slipped ~3.5–4% as markets priced in potential OPEC+ supply increases + macro worries. Lower oil = E&Ps get dragged.
2️⃣ Equity overhang
Mid-September saw a sizable secondary offering, 46.1M shares priced around $13.53. Even if mostly from selling holders, these deals create short-term pressure and arbitrage flows.
✅ What Didn’t Change
Q2 sas solid
Management raised 2025 production guidance by ~4%, citing stronger well performance.
Several analysts stayed constructive into September.
Fundamentals didn’t break.
💡 My take on the month
September’s drop looks flow-driven:
✅ Oil down
✅ Ex-div markdown
✅ Block of stock hitting the market
Fundamentals intact. If oil stabilizes and the secondary gets digested, the name should trade back to fundamentals.
🧠 Thesis check
Original thesis
Tier-1 Delaware basin acreage (concentrated, high-quality)
Disciplined growth with improving well results
Growing base dividend supported by free cash flow at mid-$60s oil
None of these were impaired in September.
Current valuation
At $12.81, PR trades at what I consider an undemanding multiple for a:
✅ Low-cost Permian operator
✅ Scale + decent balance sheet
✅ Near-5% cash yield
The risk is macro, not company-specific.
If WTI sits in the low $60s for a long time → E&P multiples compress, cash returns slow.
But PR’s well quality + cost structure give it room to defend returns.
If oil rebounds even modestly → cash generation improves quickly.
🔮 What I’m watching next
Oil direction into Q4: a steady tape helps sentiment, even if prices only grind.
Secondary follow-up: lockup resolutions, insider activity can keep a lid on rallies near-term.
Q3 results + 2025 commentary: after the Q2 guidance bump, I want to see if they sustain type curves and capital efficiency.
🎯 What to do now
September was tough, but for explainable reasons.
My view hasn’t changed:
PR = quality, scaled Permian oil name at a fair price.
Not flashy, but it gets the job done.
I stay the course, but may need patience while the market digests share supply and watches oil.
New Hope Corp (ASX: NHC) September Update 📝
The numbers
September: down ~11.5% on price (A$4.43 → A$3.92)
🌪️ What moved the stock in September
1️⃣ FY25 results (Sep 16): pop, then fade
Market initially cheered the strong print + dividend → then faded as brokers trimmed outlooks and coal stayed mid-cycle. Headlines reflected both the pop and the pullback around Sep 16–22.
2️⃣ Ex-dividend (Sep 22): mechanical drop
The A$0.15 fully franked final dividend mechanically took ~3–4% off the share price. That explains a big chunk of the fall.
3️⃣ Coal price backdrop: steady, not Shocking
Newcastle benchmark sat near ~USD 104–106/t most of the month, with a quick blip higher into month-end. The share move was more results positioning + ex-div than a commodity shock.
4️⃣ Post-results flow: broker downgrades
Some coverage pointed to a downgrade cycle and questions on FY26–27 earnings run-rate as New Acland ramps and prices normalize. That tends to compress multiples near ex-div dates, which we saw in late Sept.
🧠 Thesis check
Original thesis
Two good, long-life thermal coal assets (Bengalla + New Acland Stage 3) with a low cost base
Export exposure to Asia, pricing off Newcastle benchmark
Conservative balance sheet + shareholder returns via franked dividends
Is It Unchanged? Broadly Yes.
Operations: no red flags. New Acland Stage 3 continues to underpin volume + mine life, key swing for medium-term cash flow.
Pricing: coal mid-cycle (~USD 100–110/t). At these levels, NHC still throws off solid cash (not 2022 windfalls, but healthy). If coal holds above ~USD 90–100, dividends stay strong.
Capital returns: A$0.15 final dividend fits the pattern of consistent, fully franked payouts.
💰 Valuation & risks
Valuation
At A$3.92, the implied multiple is still single-digit on trailing numbers, with a mid-to-high single-digit yield, fully franked.
That screens as value, not a trap if coal prices don’t break lower and site performance stays steady.
Risks I’m Watching
⚠️ Coal price drift under USD 90
⚠️ Weather or operational hiccups at Bengalla or New Acland
⚠️ Policy or financing shifts that penalize thermal coal
⚠️ Post-results broker resets (can pressure the stock short-term)
🎯 What to do now
At cost base of A$2.44, I’d be patient
The thesis looks intact.
Cash generation remains fine at current coal prices.
The dividend stream still matters.
September weakness was mostly math, ex-div + post-result sentiment. The commodity didn’t crack and nothing structural changed.
Genmab (GMAB) September update 🧬
The move
Aug 29 → Sep 30: $24.87 → $30.67 (+23.3%) 📈
Nice run. Not bad at all. 🎯
🔥 What drove the 23% jump
The big news: $8B Merus acquisition
Genmab announced a deal to acquire Merus for ~$8B cash.
The prize?
Petosemtamab, a late-stage EGFRxLGR5 bispecific for head and neck cancer with two FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designations.
Why it matters:
✅ Accelerates shift to wholly owned revenue
✅ Targets EBITDA accretion by end of 2029
✅ Potential launch in 2027 if data + approvals cooperate
The stock popped into month-end on this news.
💡 My take
The Merus deal = big driver
Adds a potentially meaningful late-stage asset
Pushes GMAB toward owning more of its future revenue → supports higher long-term earnings power if execution is solid
New risk: leverage
Genmab plans to fund with cash + ~$5.5B new debt, targeting gross leverage under 3x within two years post-close.
What matters now: integration, trial execution, timelines.
🧠 Thesis check
Pipeline & catalysts: still compelling
Epcoritamab: positive Phase 3 data in FL earlier this year. Priority review timeline → late Nov 2025 for R2 combo.Supports medium-term revenue story.
Rina-S: got Breakthrough Therapy Designation (late Aug) for advanced endometrial cancer. Nice optionality kicker.
Petosemtamab: late-stage shot on goal in HNSCC. If it hits + launches in 2027 → real earnings needle-mover.
Business model tilt: positive if executed
Moving from partnered → wholly owned assets can improve margins over time.
But it also means higher execution burden + balance-sheet leverage.
Management’s deleveraging target is reasonable, but the market will watch closely.
Valuation Feel
After the September move, GMAB is no longer “left for dead”, but I don’t think it’s stretched if you believe in:
✅ Epcoritamab expansion
✅ Partial credit to petosemtamab
My view: Still screens as good value for long-term holders who accept clinical + integration risk. If you assume delays or weaker data, that flips quickly. That’s biotech.
🎯 Is the thesis unchanged?
Core story intact: durable antibody know-how + expanding late-stage oncology assets.
Merus acquisition raises both upside and execution risk.
Net: I’d call it a positive evolution of the thesis, not a detour.
Good value if you’re patient and comfortable with clinical risk.
✅ Nearer catalysts with epcoritamab
✅ Potentially sizable 2027–2029 earnings driver from petosemtamab
If those hit, today’s price will look fine. If not, you’ll need a stronger margin of safety. That’s the trade.
📅 Quick checklist going into Q4
FDA action for epcoritamab combo in FL: targeted Nov 30, 2025
Merus integration steps or financing updates: TBD
Safety/efficacy signals in ongoing epcoritamab studies: ongoing
Balance sheet & leverage path: watch company communications
September was excellent. The Merus deal is a game-changer if executed well.
The thesis evolved in a meaningful, positive way. Now it’s about execution, catalysts and managing risk.
Merck (MRK) — September 2025 Update 💊
The numbers
September: Flat (~-0.3%) ($84.14 → $83.93)
Quiet month on the tape, even with a big headline mid-month.
🔥 What happened in September
FDA approved Keytruda QLEX (Sep 19)
The new subcutaneous version of Keytruda can be administered in 1–2 minutes by a provider instead of a 30-minute IV infusion.
Why this matters:
✅ Smart defensive + growth move
✅ Improves patient + clinic convenience
✅ Expands settings of care
✅ Helps Merck defend share as biosimilar risk looms later in the decade
Broader context (still applies from Q2)
Keytruda: growing 9% to $8.0B
Animal Health: up 11%
Vaccines: weak on China
Cost optimization plan underway
Verona Pharma acquisition pending (adds COPD exposure)
All of this frames how the QLEX approval plugs into the story.
Stock reaction: modest
This was well telegraphed. The market is waiting to see uptake + pricing dynamics before re-rating. Still, it nudges consensus margin-of-safety higher, in my opinion.
🧠 Thesis check
Core engine: Keytruda + QLEX
Keytruda continues to grow and QLEX should support duration + share.
What matters most:
✅ Faster administration = higher clinic throughput
✅ Better patient experience
✅ Stickier franchise when competitors arrive
Diversification improving
Verona’s Ohtuvayre for COPD
RSV prevention approval (ENFLONSIA)
LDL-lowering program progress
Steady Animal Health
All reduce single-asset dependency over time.
LOE reality remains
Loss of exclusivity (LOE) risk for Keytruda later in the decade hasn’t vanished. QLEX helps defend the castle, but doesn’t eliminate biosimilar pressure. Execution on pipeline + BD is still key.
Still good value
I see it as good value for a defensive compounder in large-cap pharma.
Not cheap on headline P/E vs. history
But the earnings base is higher quality than a few years ago
Cash returns + pipeline optionality look solid
What would change my Mind
⚠️ Weak QLEX uptake
⚠️ Adverse pricing moves
⚠️ Stalled progress on non-oncology growth drivers
None of that showed up in September.
🎯 What to do now
Holding makes sense
September was flat on price, but positive on fundamentals. The QLEX approval:
✅ Strengthens the Keytruda moat
✅ Improves convenience
✅ Should support share retention
The diversification path is on track.
Next steps
I’d reassess after:
Initial QLEX uptake data
Verona close
Minor wobbles aside, the thesis is unchanged and slightly stronger. 📈
September was quiet but constructive. QLEX is a smart, defensive win that extends the Keytruda franchise.
The story is intact. Let it compound. 💊📈
HALO September Update — Steady as it goes 📈
The numbers
Aug 29 → Sep 30: $73.14 → $73.32 (+0.2%) basically flat
🌊 What Happened in September
Quiet consolidation month
No major company-specific headlines. HALO mostly tracked broader biotech sentiment + rates. When news is light, HALO often trades with the XLV/XBI tape.
🔍 What I’m Watching under the hood
Partner demand for SC conversions: looks intact. Darzalex SC + Phesgo doing the heavy lifting. Newer SC launches keep ramping → supports the royalty line.
Pricing & access: stayed stable. No fresh U.S. policy surprises in September that would hit the royalty stream.
Q2 guide from August: still frames expectations. No negative pre-announcements → I assume management remains on track heading into Q3 results.
In short: September felt like digestion after a strong summer move.
📅 What could matter next
Partner updates: watch Roche, J&J and others for uptake commentary on SC formulations. Even small mix shifts to SC = meaningful for HALO’s model.
New SC approvals & launches: each incremental label, geography, or conversion point = another royalty lever.
Capital allocation: HALO usually stays disciplined. Buybacks or license deals could pop up, mild positive if done at reasonable multiples.
💡 Performance context & drivers
Flat September after a big run = healthy
It lets the multiple cool off while fundamentals catch up.
Rates moved around
Tugs at long-duration cash flow stories like HALO. Still, the stock held its ground, a sign buyers are supporting dips.
🧠 Thesis check
Thesis Looks Intact
Royalty flywheel: still spinning. Core ENHANZE economics remain attractive—high-margin royalties tied to partner commercial execution. Keeps HALO less binary than typical biotech, more like a compounder.
Diversified partner base: multiple big-cap partners reduce single-asset risk. If one drug wobbles, others usually offset.
Visibility: existing launches + pipeline SC conversions provide decent line of sight into outyear cash flows.
Risks: manageable. Patent life, partner concentration, SC cannibalization debates never go away, but no new red flags from September.
The stock is not screamingly cheap after the summer rally, but the risk-adjusted setup still looks fair given the durability of the royalty stream.
My call: Quality at a reasonable price.
UBER September update 🚗
The numbers
September: up ~4.4% ($93.82 → $97.94)
Nice start (as was added to portfolio in August). 🎯
🔥 What happened in September
1️⃣ Lucid Robotaxi deal closed (Sep 4)
Uber’s $300M investment in Lucid was finalized to support a next-gen robotaxi program that will operate exclusively on Uber.
The plan:
✅ Deploy 20,000+ vehicles over six years
✅ Launch in a major U.S. city next year
Why this matters:
This locks in premium EV hardware + a credible autonomy stack partner, giving Uber more optionality on supply and unit economics over time. It adds a real, medium-term AV pathway that complements Uber’s growing network of AV partners.
Quiet but meaningful positive for the narrative in September.
2️⃣ Strong Q2 Momentum still in the tape
Investors kept digesting Uber’s Aug 6 print:
✅ 18% revenue growth
✅ $2.1B adjusted EBITDA
✅ New $20B buyback authorization
That backdrop supported the stock through September as the market leaned toward profitable growth names with cash returns.
Net effect in September
✅ Modest multiple support from buyback + cash flow story
✅ Incremental long-term enthusiasm around AV supply via Lucid
✅ No new negative regulatory shocks
Result: stock drifted higher. 📈
🧠 Thesis check
Core Thesis
Uber is now a scaled mobility + delivery platform with:
Durable network effects on both sides of the marketplace
Steady mid-teens topline growth with operating leverage
Growing ads business + product density → improving margins
Significant free cash flow to fund buybacks
Real options in autonomy that can lower driver cost exposure over time
Nothing in September weakens that
If anything, the Lucid tie-up slightly strengthens the autonomy option while keeping capex light on Uber’s balance sheet. The buyback authorization from August gives a floor when sentiment wobbles.
Execution on Mobility + Delivery remains the engine.
⚠️ Risks (worth keeping in mind)
Labor & regulatory outcomes in key markets could pressure margins or operations.
Competitive responses from Lyft, DoorDash, Amazon, local players could compress market share or pricing.
AV timelines can slip.
Macro dip in discretionary rides could slow growth.
Still good value
Relative to its cash generation + buyback firepower, not a trap.
The stock isn’t dirt cheap after a strong YTD move, but the combo of:
✅ Profitable growth
✅ Free cash flow
✅ Capital returns
…is attractive.
I like the risk-reward if they keep compounding EBITDA around guidance and lean into repurchases when volatility shows up.
Let the cash flow + buyback do the heavy lifting into year-end.
If we get a pullback on macro headlines, I think that could be a buy-the-dip setup rather than a broken story. 🟢🚗
ATKR September Update: a steady rebound into quarter-end 📈
The numbers
September: up ~7.9% ($58.17 → $62.75)
Not a huge win yet, but moving the right way. ✅ This got into the portfolio as the PUT options were assigned. I sold a $65 CALL on that with December expiry date, so our return will be mainly the option premium here.
🔥 What happened in September
1️⃣ Strategic review & portfolio clean-up (Sep 29)
Atkore announced it’s evaluating a potential sale of its HDPE pipe and conduit business (serves telecom), plus:
✅ Consolidating three manufacturing facilities
✅ Following through on headcount reductions
✅ Hired Citi to advise
Why this matters:
Clear push to refocus on core electrical infrastructure and lift returns over time. I view that as value-accretive if executed well.
2️⃣ Balance sheet improvement (Sep 29)
Atkore refinanced its term loan, extending maturity from 2028 → 2032.
Why this matters:
✅ Lower near-term refinancing risk
✅ More flexibility through the cycle
3️⃣ Activist interest (Sep 30)
Irenic Capital took a ~2.5% stake and pushed for a sale. Even if a full sale doesn’t happen, activism can be a catalyst for portfolio actions + capital discipline. Shares ticked up on the headlines.
Context from August
The stock sold off in early August after Q3 FY25 results, a guidance update and the CEO’s retirement announcement. That set a low base going into September, which made the late-month rebound more visible.
💡 My take
September’s bounce was driven by:
✅ Concrete steps to streamline the portfolio
✅ Extended debt maturities
✅ Prospect of shareholder-friendly pressure
The market likes optionality and Atkore gave it some.
🎯 How the news could impact value going forward
Potential HDPE divestiture: selling a non-core telecom conduit asset can lift blended margin profile, reduce volatility tied to telecom cycles and free up cash for buybacks, debt paydown, or selective M&A. Trade-off: less diversification, possibly lower total revenue. If the price is fair, I think it’s a net positive.
Facility consolidation + headcount reductions: near-term charges, longer-term fixed-cost savings. In a normalized pricing environment, this helps protect margins when volumes wobble.
Refinancing to 2032: more runway. With cyclicals, time is an asset. This lowers financing risk through the next demand cycle → should support valuation multiples at the margin.
Activist involvement: can accelerate portfolio moves, capital returns and possibly governance changes. Can also add headline volatility. Net: supportive for shareholders.
🧠 Thesis check
Although it is not intentionally in our portfolio, I updated here on the thesis that I wrote about in a deep-dive earlier.
Original thesis
Atkore is a high-quality cyclical in electrical raceway + safety infrastructure, with:
✅ Strong operational discipline
✅ Good cash conversion
✅ Management that knows how to use price, cost and capital allocation to create value
The super-cycle pricing from 2021–2023 normalized, but the business remains very profitable through the cycle.
What changed
✅ Execution steps to sharpen the portfolio and extend debt maturity
✅ CEO transition risk is real, but the systemized way they run operations helps continuity
✅ Activist scrutiny adds pressure to keep returns high
What didn’t change
✅ End-market drivers like electrical infrastructure, data centers and grid work are intact
✅ Pricing has normalized, volumes are uneven, but cost actions help bridge the gap
Risks to watch
⚠️ Deeper price compression in conduit
⚠️ Slower nonresidential starts
⚠️ Soft telecom market into a sale process
⚠️ Transition risk with leadership
⚠️ If a divestiture price disappoints, the stock could give back some recent gains
💰 My view today
Thesis unchanged or even slightly strengthened by the focus on core electrical and the cleaner balance sheet.
It’s still a cyclical, so expect choppiness, but the late-September moves raised the floor, in my opinion.
If execution on portfolio moves is solid and demand stabilizes, there’s room for multiple repair and earnings power to show up again.
Keep an eye on:
HDPE sale terms
Next earnings print
September improved the setup. ✅📈