Assymetric Edge portfolio update: up 15.75% in August, 50.79% since launch
Changes in reporting
First of all, about some technical changes in my reporting of the Asymmetric Edge portfolio performance.
I decided to merge all the themed portfolios into one consolidated view, so from now on I’ll be reporting aggregated results.
The reporting will also include the performance of the “Milk the watchlist” service (selling PUT options) to make the picture complete.
I think this gives a cleaner and more accurate picture of how the entire investment allocation is performing, instead of looking at smaller, theme-based pieces in isolation.
It also makes it easier to track progress, compare performance and evaluate whether the overall thesis is on the right path.
Portfolio performance
Now about the portfolio performance.
August really stood out, with the combined portfolio hitting an extraordinary
15.75% return (compared to S&P500 1.91%)
That’s a strong number in absolute terms. But it also shows that the different positions are complementing each other quite well. By looking at everything together, we can see where the real strengths are, and in my opinion this approach will help guide smarter moves going forward.
This strong month also pushed the cumulative performance of the Asymmetric Edge portfolio to 50.79% since launch on April 10, 2025.
It is more than double the S&P500 performance (18.39%) in the same period.
So, in less than five months, the portfolio has already more than doubled what many investors would hope to see in a strong year.
Long stock positions still make up the largest share of the portfolio, while the short option positions come from the Milk the Watchlist service.
My long positions continue to lean heavily into Energy, Health Care and Basic Materials, reflecting my conviction in these sectors.
This is how the performance of individual holdings looks like:
Transactions
In August, I added a brand new tech stock to the portfolio, the one I made a deep dive about here.
I also extended the position for one of the biotech companies in the portfolio, the one I wrote about here.
And several option selling transactions were made. ATKR 0.00%↑ option was assigned due to the heavy sell of of the stock after Q2 results reported. This requires a strategy how to handle the situation, which i detailed for paid subscribers.
Update on the positions - 2025 August
Kinross Gold Corp (KGC)
KGC had a strong month. The stock rose about 30% in August, outpacing both gold and the GDX ETF. With gold breaking out and reaching record highs around $3,470/oz, miners finally got some love from investors. Year-to-date, KGC is now up ~127%, making it one of the standout names in the mid-tier group.
On the fundamentals, Kinross reaffirmed 2025 production guidance at ~2M gold equivalent ounces. Costs remain under control, with AISC at $1,500/oz, leaving very healthy margins at current gold prices. (AISC = All-in Sustaining Cost, it is a key metric in mining sector reflecting the total cost of producing one ounce of metal).
The balance sheet continues to strengthen. Net debt fell again, and the company is on track to be net-cash positive by year-end. It is a big de-risking milestone in an industry where leverage often gets punished.
Share buybacks remain modest, but dividends are steady.
The real excitement is still the Great Bear project. Recent drill results confirmed high-grade continuity, reinforcing the view that this is the company’s crown jewel for its next growth phase. Construction planning is still on schedule for 2026.
On the market side, after the choppy swings earlier this summer, gold has stabilized above $3,400. That calming backdrop triggered a bit of investor rotation back into mining equities.
Thesis check:
Margins strong: Cash flow is pouring in at today’s prices.
Balance sheet cleaner: net cash is within reach, lowering risk.
Growth optionality: if Great Bear proves out, KGC has the potential to re-rate higher.
Valuation: still trades cheaper than Barrick and Agnico, suggesting upside remains.
⚠️ Risk: If gold drifts back toward $2,000, free cash flow would tighten quickly. Mining stocks will always live and die by the gold cycle.
✅ Bottom line: KGC delivered across the board in August: solid share performance, improving balance sheet and steady progress on Great Bear.
Gold prices are jumping again and the prices are still mainly driven by Central Banks hoarding gold. I see the trend continuing.
The thesis is intact: good value, potential growth and favorable market conditions. Based on 2025 Q1-Q2 financials.
I raised the intrinsic value to $25.17 (from $20.34).
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) - August 2025
GLD delivered an impressive +5% return in August, easily outpacing U.S. equities and bonds. It closed just shy of all-time highs, marking one of its strongest months of 2025. Volatility was present, but the trend was decisively higher, with ETF inflows turning positive again.
What happened in August?
Falling yields: U.S. Treasury yields eased mid-month after softer inflation and cooling growth, giving gold breathing room.
Central bank demand: China and other emerging markets continued buying physical gold — these are sticky, long-term flows.
Weakening dollar: the U.S. dollar lost ground late August, making gold more attractive globally and fueling the breakout.
Safe-haven bid: geopolitical wobbles (Taiwan, Middle East) amplified gold’s appeal. Each headline spike brought follow-through, a notable shift.
Thesis check 🤔
Long-term intact: persistent deficits, sticky inflation and central bank diversification away from the dollar all favor gold.
Re-rating: August shows investors are increasingly viewing gold as a core allocation, not just a hedge.
Valuation: after a +5% month, some consolidation in September would be healthy, not bearish.
✅ Bottom line: August’s performance reinforces the gold story. GLD is proving its worth as a portfolio diversifier when uncertainty rises. The thesis is not only intact, it looks stronger after central bank flows and dollar weakness.
My take: If you hold, stay patient. If you’re looking to add, buy on dips rather than chasing after a hot month. Still a strong “hold” and a potential “buy on weakness.” 🥇
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – August 2025
GDX delivered a blockbuster month, soaring +22.3% in August, far outpacing major equity indices and even spot gold. It was one of the ETF’s strongest monthly gains in years.
What happened in August?
Gold strength: spot gold pushed higher on a weaker U.S. dollar and safe‑haven demand.
Falling real yields: softer bond yields and rising bets on monetary easing boosted the appeal of gold miners.
Risk-off flows: geopolitical tensions and equity volatility funneled institutional money into precious metals equities.
Earnings tailwind: several large miners topped expectations, with higher realized prices and cost discipline amplifying GDX’s outperformance vs. gold itself.
Thesis check 🤔
Still intact, if not stronger: GDX remains a leveraged play on gold, supported by persistent macro/political uncertainty and the drift toward easier monetary policy.
Healthier miners: capital discipline, stronger balance sheets, and shareholder returns (dividends/buybacks) make this cycle sturdier than past booms.
Caveat: after a +22% month, short‑term consolidation wouldn’t surprise, but the structural bull case stays supportive.
Outlook
Near term: a pause or pullback is possible after such a steep run.
Longer term: macro tailwinds (easing policy, geopolitical risks, and demand for diversification) keep the bullish thesis alive.
✅ Bottom line: August was a breakout month that showcased miners’ leverage to gold. The thesis holds: GDX is still a compelling way to play sustained strength in gold, with stronger companies under the hood than in cycles past.
iShares Silver Trust (SLV) – August 2025
SLV delivered a stellar August, surging +8.6% and easily outpacing gold’s ~2% gain. Year-to-date, SLV is now up well into double digits, making it one of the top precious metals plays.
What happened in August?
Fed expectations: markets priced in higher odds of U.S. rate cuts after mixed inflation data. Lower rates weaken the dollar, which typically boosts silver.
Gold-Silver ratio: the ratio tightened to ~78 (from 85+), signaling silver finally catching up to gold’s strength.
Industrial demand: news of surging solar panel installations in China highlighted silver’s crucial role in renewables. Investors are waking up to this demand story.
ETF inflows: SLV saw notable inflows, reversing two months of outflows and signaling renewed institutional interest.
In short, silver got a dual boost: from its “monetary metal” side (macro, rates) and its “industrial commodity” side (renewables demand).
Thesis check 🤔
Still good value: silver remains cheap relative to historical gold-silver ratios. It often lags gold, then plays sharp catch-up.
Growth angle: the renewable energy demand is no longer hype; it’s pulling real ounces off the market, with supply struggling to keep pace.
Risk: silver is notoriously volatile. A hawkish Fed pivot or inflation surprise could quickly erase gains.
✅ Bottom line: August’s move feels more like the beginning of silver breaking out of its funk than the end of a short squeeze. The thesis is intact, arguably stronger.
👉 My view: SLV remains a buy-and-hold with patience, not a quick trade. It offers leverage to both monetary easing and growing industrial demand, with volatility as part of the package.
Teekay Tankers (TNK)
Teekay Tankers (TNK) also had a strong month. The stock surged +17%, easily outpacing both shipping peers and the broader market. After a quieter summer, this was one of the sector’s standout moves.
What happened in August?
Rates rebounded: Aframax and Suezmax spot rates spiked late August. Russian crude rerouting and stronger U.S. exports gave the ton-mile trade a lift, tightening the market quickly.
China surprise: despite negative headlines, China’s crude imports actually rose, catching traders off guard and boosting sentiment across tankers.
Geopolitics: ongoing tensions around the Red Sea / Suez diversion kept ton-mile demand elevated as ships avoided the higher-risk zones, adding to the rate spike.
Tight supply in focus: with the global orderbook near historic lows and many ships nearing retirement, investors leaned back into the “this cycle lasts longer” argument.
Earnings momentum: no fresh TNK numbers, but strong peer results (Frontline, Euronav) set bullish expectations for Q3.
The thesis check 📈
Bull case stronger: Tanker rates remain resilient and has huge operating leverage to each incremental rate move. Debt is down, balance sheet looks solid.
Risks remain: stock is volatile and sentiment could flip if geopolitics or demand stumble. But tight supply means the setup doesn’t unravel easily.
Valuation appealing: even after the rally, TNK trades at modest multiples relative to cash flow.
✅ Bottom Line
August’s surge wasn’t just a speculative bounce — it was the market recognizing tanker fundamentals are still very strong. TNK remains one of the purest plays on prolonged tanker tightness. Still good value here, though shipping never moves in a straight line. Expect big swings both ways. 🚢
Permian Resources (PR) – August 2025
Permian Resources (PR) had a quiet month. The stock inched up just +0.9% in August moving broadly in line with the S&P 500. Despite firmer oil prices, PR didn’t catch the same rally that lifted some other energy names.
What happened in August?
Oil volatility: crude oil ticked higher, but the ride was choppy. OPEC+ discipline and slowing U.S. output lent support, while China demand worries capped momentum. Net-net, oil wasn’t strong enough to spark a breakout in PR.
Earnings digestion: investors were still weighing the Q2 results released in late July. Production and free cash flow impressed, but modestly higher operating costs gave the market pause.
Sector rotation: some money rotated out of energy after earlier gains, leaving even strong players like PR trading sideways.
The thesis check 💡
Core story intact: PR remains a disciplined Permian operator with steady production growth, solid FCF and consistent dividends + buybacks.
Valuation fair: At ~5x forward Owner Earning, shares look inexpensive, especially if oil holds in the $80s.
Patience required: this isn’t a rocket-ship trade. PR’s fundamentals are strong, but in the current market backdrop, it may take a catalyst to unlock upside.
✅ Bottom Line
August was noise, not signal. PR’s fundamentals remain solid, with scale in the Permian, low leverage and a clear capital return strategy. For long-term investors, this is a sturdy, shareholder-friendly operator waiting for the right spark.
MOL group (MOL.BD) – August 2025
MOL slid –4.5% in August, closing at 2,914 HUF. That underperformance vs. the BUX came from softer oil prices and a sudden reminder of MOL’s geopolitical fragility.
What happened in August?
Oil cooled: oil wasn’t strong enough putting pressure on upstream earnings.
Refining steady: strong European diesel demand kept refining margins firm that is still MOL’s cash engine.
Pipeline strike: the real shock was a Ukrainian drone attack on the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies ~92% of Hungary’s crude. Flows weren’t fully disrupted, but the strike exposed just how reliant MOL remains on this single Soviet‑era line. Any prolonged cutoff would mean pricier imports via Croatia or sea, cutting into profitability.
Policy overhang: no new taxes yet, but Hungarian budget talks in autumn keep windfall levies on the radar. That uncertainty hangs over the stock.
Ops stable: refineries and downstream units ran without major issues. The focus is squarely on securing crude supply.
Thesis check 🤔
Dividend still appealing, but resilience depends on unbroken access to Druzhba crude.
Valuation cheap, though the discount now reflects not just politics, but real infrastructure risk.
Supply is the wild card: Unlike many European peers that diversified after 2022, MOL remains tied to a single pipe, a vulnerability the market can’t ignore anymore.
✅ Bottom line
The August drop wasn’t just oil-related, the strikes exposed MOL’s strategic risk. The investment story of a cheap, cash-rich, dividend-paying refiner is intact, but the risk premium has edged higher. If crude keeps flowing, MOL stays attractive. If disruptions escalate, that “value” narrative can flip to “value trap” fast.
👉 My take: It’s a “watch closely” stock heading into autumn.
New Hope Corporation (NHC.AX) – August 2025
New Hope surged +5.98% in August. That’s a strong beat against a flat ASX200, extending NHC’s year-to-date outperformance in Australian resources. Steady coal demand and the hunt for yield are driving the story.
What happened in August? ⚡
Coal prices firmed: thermal coal bounced back, with Newcastle futures climbing from ~$115 to $125–128/tonne. Asian utilities restocked and European demand ticked up. This directly boosted NHC sentiment.
Operational updates: Bengalla maintained stable production. New Acland’s ramp-up looks constructive, with management hinting at meaningful volume increases through FY26. Capex is slightly above guidance, but nothing alarming.
Dividend buzz: With FY25 results due mid-September, the market is betting on another robust dividend. Chatter suggests a fully franked ~5–7% yield and a potential buyback extension, a key support for the share price.
Thesis check
Income story intact: dividends remain the core attraction. August’s rally shows investors are positioning for those payouts.
Valuation: shares trade at a cheap ~8x forward owener earnings, promising a double-digit total shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks).
Risks: Australian policy, ESG sentiment and coal price volatility are always present. But for now, prices are resilient, and the balance sheet is flush with cash.
✅ My Take
The investment thesis holds: NHC is a compelling value play especially when thermal coal stays north of $110/tonne. August’s move signals growing market confidence ahead of results.
Genmab (GMAB) – August 2025
Genmab ADRs jumped +14.8% in August, outpacing biotech indices and the broader market. The rally erased July’s weakness and pushed the stock back near YTD highs, as investors rewarded strong earnings and the pipeline story. So far it has proven to be a good move to extend our position before Q2 earning report.
What happened in August
Q2 earnings beat: Revenue topped estimates, led by robust Darzalex royalties (J&J). Management reaffirmed 2025 guidance and expressed confidence in epcoritamab’s growth. Rising R&D spend was shrugged off in favor of momentum in topline growth.
Pipeline progress: Epcoritamab prescriptions keep climbing steadily in lymphoma. Conference updates underscored Genmab’s differentiated antibody platform and pipeline depth, keeping enthusiasm alive.
Sector context: while biotech remained mixed, Genmab stood out as one of the few names combining cash-generating products with innovative R&D, a stark contrast to loss-making peers.
Thesis Check 🤔
Core engine secure: Darzalex royalties provide predictable growth and fund future innovation, rare stability in biotech.
Pipeline visibility: the epcoritamab ramp and other bispecifics give credibility to the R&D spend.
Re-rating justified: the rally looks more like sentiment normalizing after being underowned, not hype-fueled speculation.
✅ Bottom Line
August showed the market’s conviction: Genmab isn’t just a biotech burning cash, but a profitable royalty machine with real pipeline upside. The thesis of durable revenues + innovative oncology growth is intact, even stronger.
👉 My take: with Darzalex carrying the cash engine and epcoritamab ramping, valuation looks fair. Trial updates will drive short-term swings, but strategically, Genmab remains a rare hybrid of stability and innovation in biotech.
Merck (MRK) – August 2025
Merck had a strong August, with the stock getting real traction while the broader healthcare space was more muted.
The stock climbed 7.68% in August, a big move for a pharma giant. The gains outpaced both the S&P 500 (up ~3%) and the healthcare sector, showing investors are rewarding the company’s steady execution.
What happened in August
Keytruda momentum continues
Keytruda remains the backbone. August brought more positive trial data, this time in early-stage lung cancer, solidifying its leadership.
Approvals in Japan and Europe expanded usage into new cancer types, pushing sales forecasts higher. Consensus now pegs peak sales around $27B annually, which is massive.
Pipeline updates
Late-stage trial for MK-5684 in prostate cancer hit key endpoints, showing Merck still has strong innovation beyond Keytruda.
The vaccines business also kept moving, with its HPV and RSV programs showing promising traction.
Macro and sector backdrop
Political noise on U.S. drug pricing continued, but pressure looks more like a 2026–27 issue than anything near term.
Merck indirectly benefited from weakness at rivals like Bristol Myers and Pfizer, which struggled with trial delays and lackluster pipeline updates.
My take on the thesis 🤔
August basically confirmed the bull case: Keytruda is still growing, not slowing down and the pipeline is rich enough to keep the growth story alive.
The 2028 patent cliff is looming, but management has been aggressive in deals and R&D spending to soften the blow.
With 7.68% added in just one month, is MRK overheated? I don’t think so. The market’s re-rating feels justified by execution, and the stock is still cheaper than some peers when you adjust for growth plus a clean balance sheet.
Bottom line: The stock is showing that stability and growth can coexist. In my view, MRK is still good value. August made the story stronger and investors seem to agree.
Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) – August 2025
Halozyme had a breakout August, soaring +22% — one of its strongest monthly gains in years. The move crushed the Nasdaq Biotech Index (up mid-single digits) and stuck through month-end, backed by high trading volumes that signaled institutional conviction.
What happened in August?
Q2 earnings beat: profit topped expectations, fueled by stronger-than-expected ENHANZE® royalty growth. Management reiterated 2025 guidance, but investors focused on the durability and scalability of the royalty stream as more partner drugs ramp.
Pipeline & partnerships: HALO’s no‑R&D model was reinforced as partners rolled out new subcutaneous formulations, keeping enthusiasm high for ENHANZE’s expanding footprint. No blockbuster headlines, but the compounding effect of multiple partner wins changed sentiment.
Sector tailwind: Biotech rebounded in August as cooling inflation revived interest in growth names. HALO benefited twice over — from the sector rally and its status as a lower-risk, cash-generating biotech.
Thesis check 🤔
Bull case realized: The predictable royalty model is finally being rewarded, with a re-rating that feels justified relative to HALO’s quality.
Not hype: gains were grounded in hard numbers: earnings strength, royalty momentum, visible partner pipelines.
Risks remain: heavy reliance on drugs like Darzalex Faspro and eventual biosimilar pressures. But partner diversification is cushioning the downside.
🌟 Bottom line
August’s surge wasn’t a speculative bounce, it was recognition that Halozyme is a royalty compounder. The thesis is intact, arguably stronger: stable cash flows, low R&D risk, and leverage to multiple pharma partners.
👉 My take: HALO stays attractive for long‑term holders. It’s not hyper‑growth, but it’s a durable, cash‑rich biotech with unique compounding power. 📈
I’ve updated the instrinsic value to $77.03 (from $61.20)
Uber (UBER) – August 2025
Uber delivered a solid month, climbing +6.8% in August. That’s a clear outperformance versus a choppy broader market.
For me personally, I only started a position on 20 August, so I’m up just ~1.3%. Nothing huge, but 🌱 green is green.
What happened in August?
Q2 earnings: revenue grew +15% YoY, driven by strong ride demand. More importantly, Uber posted another record with $1.6B adjusted EBITDA, showing clear operating leverage and cost discipline.
Mobility strength: airport and urban rides stayed robust, with international demand adding extra fuel. The pandemic drag is officially history.
Delivery shift: growth has slowed to single digits, but profitability is now improving steadily, a healthy pivot from land-grab to sustainable margins.
Freight drag: still running losses, but management is downsizing ambitions and leaning on partnerships. The market doesn’t seem too concerned given the small scale.
Regulation watch: gig worker classification debates in California and Europe resurfaced, as always, but no new concrete actions in August.
Thesis check
Uber is showing that global scale = consistent profits, not just growth.
Cash flow improvement makes this less of a “trust us” story and more of a proven model.
Regulation risk remains, but the platform leader case in rides + delivery looks intact.
👉 Bottom line: Uber had a strong August, both in results and share performance. Even though I joined late and my position barely moved, I’m comfortable holding at these levels. If the company continues compounding free cash flow while navigating regulation, the long-term story looks solid.
My Take
August proved that when Uber executes, there’s strong support for the stock. For me, this is a compounder to hold.
Atkore (ATKR) – August 2025
August was rough. Shares sank –24%, after Q2 FY25 results rattled investors. As a consequence, our ATKR options were assigned leaving positions underwater for now. As I wrote in the subscriber chat, my strategy to handle the situation is to repeat selling CALL options at strike price $65 until the stock goes above $65 and I will be assigned. In this way I will have $0 return on the stock itself, but I accumulate option premiums. It will take time though.
Near-term, weakness could linger for a few quarters. But with patience, the combination of strong cash generation and resilient end-market themes could still pay off.
What happened in August
Soft revenue guide: Q2 EPS beat, but revenue missed. Management flagged weaker conduit/electrical volumes, citing soft distributor orders. It was a red flag for the market.
Sentiment swing: ATKR has long traded on a discount multiple. When growth slips, investors quickly reprice it as a cyclical industrial, not a structural winner.
Margin fears: Pandemic-era tailwinds (tight supply, commodity pass‑through) are fading, raising worries that earnings already peaked.
Stock reaction:
This wasn’t about solvency. Atkore remains profitable, with strong free cash flow and ongoing buybacks. The 24% drop was sentiment-driven, reflecting multiple compression as the narrative flipped bearish.
Thesis check 🤔
ATKR was a forced buy (due to assignment). If someone was assigned too and intends to hold the stock, here come some thoughts about the investment thesis.
Cash machine stays intact: high profitability, strong returns on capital, buybacks and bolt-on M&A still in play.
End-market softness is real: lower construction activity and distributor destocking weigh on near-term volumes, but longer-term megatrends (infrastructure spend, electrification, data centers) should help re-stabilize demand.
Valuation reset: at ~$58, shares trade 7–8x forward earnings, already reflecting caution. While earnings may compress further, the stock doesn’t look expensive here.
Bottom line: Atkore’s thesis is intact but patience is essential. Downside looks limited unless the U.S. sees a sharp construction recession. Upside will take time, so this is a hold-if-horizon-is-2026+ story.
My take
This doesn’t look like a “value trap”, it looks like capitulation after expectations overshot reality. The fundamentals aren’t broken (no debt crisis, no dividend cut, no cash burn). The issue is cycle fear and sentiment.